Overnight U.S. stock software sector rebounds, watch whether A-shares and Hong Kong stocks TMT will catch up?

On the night of March 12, the U.S. stock market saw a rebound in the software sector. Catalysts included: recovery from pessimistic expectations, funds rotating from hardware to undervalued software, and Oracle’s latest earnings report showing cloud business growth exceeding expectations and raising the FY2027 revenue guidance to $90 billion.

Guangfa Securities’ media team pointed out: Previously, the AI disruption narrative led to software valuations being compressed to Q4 2022 levels (PS ratio down to 5.9), widening the valuation gap with hardware sectors. By Q2 2026, a new major model iteration cycle is expected to begin, with domestic text and multimodal AI accelerating to catch up. The commercialization of agents is nearing a turning point, with high unit prices and increasing penetration potential. We believe that the core investment trend centered on computing power and models will continue, and AI is likely to usher in a new round of valuation reassessment.

Pay attention to the mapping effect of U.S. software stocks on the TMT sectors of the A-share and Hong Kong markets, which previously also declined following the “AI disruption of software” narrative.

Compared to A-shares’ TMT, the current Hong Kong TMT trend is weaker. Both cover TMT (media, communication equipment, computer software, etc.), but the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index in A-shares have already returned to their highs before October last year, while the Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180) and Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) in Hong Kong have retraced by 28% from their highs and are still oscillating at low levels.

Focus on the low-position rebound opportunities for core assets in Hong Kong TMT:

Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330.SH), the largest ETF tracking the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index, gathers a relatively scarce basket of leading internet application companies (Alibaba, Baidu Group, Tencent Holdings, Meituan, Kingsoft Cloud, Bilibili, GDS Holdings, Kingdee International, etc.) compared to A-shares.

Hang Seng Tech Index ETF (513180.SH), the largest ETF tracking the Hang Seng Tech Index, covers internet media (Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Bilibili), semiconductors (SMIC), consumer electronics (Xiaomi), new energy vehicles (NIO, Li Auto), and more.

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