Iran's Supreme Leader: Will Not Give Up on Retaliation, Strait of Hormuz Will Remain Closed! Oil Price Breaks Through $100/Barrel Again!

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Source: Futures Daily

Good morning, let’s first focus on the Middle East situation.

Iran Launches 41st Wave of Strikes

According to CCTV News, based on a statement released by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Public Relations Department on March 12, Iran has launched the 41st wave of strikes as part of “Operation True Commitment 4” against targets related to the United States and Israel.

The statement said Iran fired more than ten missiles and suicide drones at relevant targets in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, as well as U.S. military bases in the region, with some missiles equipped with multiple warheads or heavy combat units.

Iran and Hezbollah Collaborate to Attack Israel

According to CCTV News, early morning on March 12, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran coordinated attacks against Israel, increasing pressure on Israel’s air defense systems.

In response to Hezbollah’s attacks, the Israeli Navy has recently deployed additional forces near the northern coast. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting overnight, possibly deciding to further strengthen northern troop deployments.

No Abandonment of Revenge! Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei Issues First Statement

According to CCTV News, Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, delivered his first statement on March 12 via national television, mainly focusing on national unity, external conflicts, regional relations, and mourning the late leader Ayatollah Khomeini.

Regarding the current situation, Khamenei expressed gratitude to the Iranian military and resistance forces, stating they have thwarted enemies’ attempts to control or divide Iran. He also said Iran will continue to use strategic measures, including blockading the Strait of Hormuz, and open new fronts if necessary.

On regional issues, he called on neighboring countries to close U.S.-used military bases within their borders and clarified that Iran’s strikes target military facilities only, not the countries themselves. He emphasized Iran’s desire to maintain friendly relations with neighbors.

Khamenei stated that revenge will not be abandoned, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Claims Attack on U.S. Oil Tanker

According to CCTV News, on March 12, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced they attacked a Marshall Islands-flagged U.S. “Safiyeh” oil tanker for ignoring warnings from IRGC Navy. The IRGC also said ships operating in the Strait of Hormuz should understand that such insecurity is the result of U.S. brutal aggression in the region. For their safety, they must comply with Iran’s declared wartime navigation laws and regulations.

Israeli Prime Minister Threatens Assassination of Iran’s New Supreme Leader

According to CCTV News, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held his first press conference after a large-scale airstrike on Iran on the night of March 12, defending the joint U.S.-Israel military action and subtly threatening to assassinate Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Khamenei.

Netanyahu claimed that after nearly two weeks of U.S.-Israel airstrikes, Iran “is no longer the same,” with the IRGC and Basij militias “suffering heavy damage.” When asked about possible actions against Khamenei and Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem, Netanyahu said he would not “issue a life insurance policy” for them and refused to detail plans or actions.

International Oil Prices Surge

Last night and early morning, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent crude futures briefly surpassing $100 per barrel, and WTI crude futures rising more than 10% intraday.

At close, WTI futures settled at $95.73, up 9.72%; Brent futures at $100.46 per barrel, up 9.22%.

Analysts: A-shares Show Strong Resilience

On March 11, U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai announced a new Section 301 investigation into 16 trading partners, including China, paving the way for potential new tariffs. This news caused new disruptions in global trade patterns, but analysts generally believe its impact on A-shares is limited.

On March 12, A-shares opened higher then retreated, gradually rebounding in the afternoon. Regarding market fluctuations, Galaxy Futures financial derivatives analyst Sun Feng said it might be related to the investigation, but further tracking is needed.

“Since the investigation has not yet been finalized, and with China-U.S. sixth round of trade talks upcoming, the results may clarify the trade relationship,” said CITIC Construction Investment Futures researcher Sheng Yiqing. Based on last year’s China-U.S. trade negotiations, the relationship may gradually improve this year, but ongoing developments should be watched.

Sun Feng added that export data showed a 21.8% year-on-year increase in dollar-denominated exports for January-February, far exceeding expectations. China’s exports to the U.S. shrank from a 30.0% decline in December to 11.0%, reducing the drag on overall exports to about 1.4 percentage points.

“Regardless of the outcome of the new Section 301 investigation or changes in U.S. tariffs, the actual impact on A-shares may be limited,” Sun Feng said.

Domestically, analysts note that macro policies for 2026 are entering the implementation phase. From the position and basis changes in stock index futures, institutional funds are in a transition stage of cautious observation and reallocation.

Sheng Yiqing believes that macro policies in 2026 provide significant overall market support, and current market expectations for A-shares are relatively optimistic. In the short term, influenced by Middle East tensions, global stock markets have experienced significant corrections, with A-shares performing relatively strongly. However, risk aversion remains high, and basis spreads in stock index futures have widened. As macro policies take effect and tensions ease, the market may return to a “slow bull” trend.

“Recently, total holdings in stock index futures have decreased, and basis spreads have widened,” Sun Feng analyzed. This may be due to some bullish funds exiting amid escalating Middle East conflicts. However, this reduction is more for risk hedging than a bearish outlook.

“From late Q1 to Q2, macro policy implementation and U.S.-China summit will be market focuses. A-shares may face a new round of directional choices,” Sun Feng said. Historically, markets tend to stir after the Two Sessions, creating new trading opportunities.

Recently, margin trading balances have rebounded, and northbound funds have flowed in phase-wise. Sheng Yiqing told reporters that the recent rebound in margin balances is mainly due to funds returning from the Spring Festival holiday. Currently, due to regional tensions in the Middle East, market sentiment remains cautious, and trading volume and margin balances in Shanghai and Shenzhen are recovering slowly. The structure of futures positions shows no clear signs of new capital inflows.

Sun Feng believes that the recent divergence in futures positions—net short positions in IM, IF, IC, and the top five and ten traders—aligns with market rebounds and profit-taking. Meanwhile, net short positions in IH (SSE 50 ETF futures) have increased, consistent with the relatively weak performance of the SSE 50 index.

Overall, most experts believe that the emotional impact of the Section 301 investigation is limited, and A-shares demonstrate strong resilience.

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Editor: Zhao Siyuan