"Shocked, Marginalized, and Divided": Why Is the EU Struggling to Speak with One Voice Amid Middle East Upheaval?

In the Middle East turmoil, Europe is facing an awkward situation.

According to CCTV News, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated on March 9 that Europe must face reality and see the true face of today’s world. She pointed out that ongoing regional conflicts are bringing a series of unpredictable consequences, with spillover effects already beginning to show.

Von der Leyen said that the conflict has caused oil and gas prices in Europe to soar, costing Europeans an extra 3 billion euros in energy imports so far. Additionally, the conflict could lead to a potential refugee surge in Europe.

She emphasized that while Europe will continue to defend and uphold the rules-based international system built with allies, it can no longer see this system as the only way to protect its interests.

After the US and Israel jointly attacked Iran, Europe has struggled to act in unison. The UK, France, and Germany announced they might take “necessary and proportionate defensive actions” against Iran. Spain, however, refused to allow US military use of its bases. On the 11th, Spain downgraded diplomatic relations with Israel.

Xin Hua, a researcher at Shanghai Foreign Studies University’s US Studies Center, director of the EU Studies Center, and deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai European Society, told The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) that European countries have differing interests in the Gulf region, hence their inconsistent statements. However, European political leaders do not approve of Trump’s instigation of chaos in the Gulf.

A former EU official commented that “Europe’s reaction to the US-Israel attack on Iran has been merely shock, marginalization, and a lack of unity.” Analysts say that European countries generally avoid provoking President Trump to prevent him from pushing for a resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but this is a “disastrous strategic misjudgment.”

Europe disapproves, Trump is dissatisfied

At the outbreak of the conflict on March 1, leaders of the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement that they might take “necessary and proportionate defensive actions” against Iran to destroy its missile and drone capabilities.

UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said the UK agreed to the US’s use of British military bases for “specific and limited” defensive purposes, changing his previous refusal. However, he stated that the UK would not participate in US and Israeli offensive strikes against Iran, nor believe in “regime change from the air.”

French President Emmanuel Macron on the 3rd said France could not endorse the military actions launched by the US and Israel against Iran. On the 9th, he announced France would maintain a military presence in the Mediterranean and Red Sea, including deploying aircraft carriers and other warships, with the potential scope extending to the Strait of Hormuz to ensure regional shipping safety and European interests.

Also on the 9th, von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell held a video conference with Middle Eastern leaders to assess the current situation and its potential impacts on EU energy, immigration, and security.

Currently, the UK’s Akrotiri Royal Air Force Base in southern Cyprus, and the French Salem Naval Base at Zayed Port in Abu Dhabi (also called Peace Camp), have been attacked, suffering minor damages.

Compared to the limited support from the UK, France, and Germany, Spain explicitly refused US use of its Morón de la Frontera and Rota bases for military strikes against Iran. These bases are operated jointly by the US and Spain, but sovereignty belongs to Spain.

On the 11th, Spain also officially announced the recall of its ambassador to Israel, Anna Salomon. The embassy is currently managed by an acting chargé d’affaires.

Xin Hua believes that the UK and France have only a small number of military facilities and personnel in the Gulf. If Iran’s strikes harm US forces and, by extension, European strategic interests, these major European powers might intervene cautiously but will not openly side with Trump. Countries like Spain, which have no such interests and oppose Trump’s reckless war, will likely oppose.

Trump’s dissatisfaction with the UK’s reluctance and Spain’s non-cooperation is evident. He believes Sunak should “allow the US to use its air bases more quickly” and claims that the special relationship between the US and the UK is “not what it used to be.”

On the 11th, Trump again called for cutting trade with Spain. Previously, he criticized Spain for not increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP and for refusing US military use of its bases, calling their attitude “unfriendly.”

Xin Hua notes that the Trump administration’s attack on Iran lacked a clear strategic intent, mainly aimed at creating a “victory spectacle” to influence domestic politics after the midterm elections. This approach blatantly violates the basic principles of international law and respect for sovereignty, which European political elites strongly oppose.

“Europe’s political leadership views the Trump government as a security threat to Europe in some respects. From the EU to France and Germany, they cannot accept Trump’s unilateral attack on Iran. Therefore, they will adopt a watchful and cautious attitude toward the chaos in the Gulf, not directly supporting Trump’s expansion of military actions,” Xin Hua said.

Europe faces potential multiple crises

In the Middle East chaos, Europe is confronting several potential crises.

First and foremost is the impact of soaring energy prices on the economy. The New York Times reports that the European Central Bank states the European economy has remained “in good shape” over recent months. Despite Trump’s tariffs, inflation in Europe has been low, economic growth has exceeded expectations, and interest rates are expected to stay stable. Europe has managed to overcome the instability caused by the surge in supply disruptions following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

However, US-Israel attacks on Iran and Iran’s counterattacks threaten Europe’s critical oil and gas supplies, potentially hindering economic recovery.

Compared to the Middle East and the US, the EU lacks abundant energy reserves. European domestic oil and gas fields, such as the North Sea, are facing resource depletion. According to its climate policies, the EU plans to phase out “dirtier” fuels like coal. As a result, Europe’s dependence on imported energy is increasing, making it vulnerable to global price fluctuations.

Federal Reserve analysis shows that the share of imported energy in Europe’s total energy demand has risen from 50% in 1990 to 58% today.

On March 2, Qatar Energy announced it would suspend LNG production after two of its facilities were attacked by drones from Iran. On that day, European natural gas prices surged 50%, the largest increase since March 2022.

Furthermore, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital export route for Gulf countries, is blockaded. It handles exports of oil, natural gas, and chemicals. About 20% of the world’s oil passes through this strait, making it critically important for Europe.

Analysts warn that this disruption will force Europe and Asian buyers to compete with exporters like the US and Australia for natural gas supplies.

Carsten Brzeski, head of macro research at ING, wrote in a report: “The timing couldn’t be worse. Europe may face an energy shock on top of trade shocks now.”

In February, inflation in the Eurozone rose 1.9% year-on-year, while economists had expected 1.7%.

Some analysts believe that the supply disruptions in the Middle East will take weeks to significantly impact Europe’s economy, which has become more resilient than years ago. Unlike the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe has not urgently sought new energy suppliers after the Middle East escalation.

Xin Hua argues that Europe is reluctant to deepen involvement and lacks sufficient strategic resources to shape a new Middle Eastern strategy. Its strategic focus remains on Ukraine. However, Iran’s attacks on nearly all Gulf states to block energy shipping routes have caused Gulf instability and severely damaged energy supply chains, threatening Europe’s economic and strategic interests. Major powers will find it hard to stay passive.

“If the damage to the energy supply chain reaches a certain level, Europe might send its navy to escort energy cargo ships or patrol Middle Eastern waters, and even possibly retaliate against Iran, affecting the broader Persian Gulf military balance,” Xin Hua said.

The EU also fears a new wave of refugees.

According to a report released on the 3rd by the EU Asylum Agency, in 2025, about 822,000 asylum applications are expected from the 27 EU countries, Switzerland, and Norway, showing a decreasing trend—19% fewer than the previous year.

However, due to ongoing domestic pressures and increasing international tensions in Iran, the report suggests Iran could become a “potential flashpoint” in 2026, possibly reversing the recent decline in asylum applications.

Iran’s population is about 90 million; even if only 10% are displaced, it would result in one of the largest refugee flows in decades.

The EU Asylum Agency refuses to assess the potential impact of the changing Middle Eastern situation, stating, “The situation remains highly unstable, and making any assumptions or predictions is irresponsible.”

A report by the European Policy Centre (EPC) notes that Europe’s migration policies are becoming increasingly strict, and public attitudes are hardening. The EU’s “Migration and Asylum Pact,” set to take effect this year, emphasizes that to avoid future migration shocks, Europe should continue focusing on the Middle East, maintaining humanitarian aid and preventing further regional instability.