Two Sessions Conclude with Guidance for "15th Five-Year Plan" Launch, Institutions Decode 2026 Investment Themes

On the afternoon of March 12, the Fourth Session of the 14th National People’s Congress concluded. The session approved the resolution on the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, marking the official finalization of the country’s development blueprint and policy framework for 2026. The development direction, core objectives, and key tasks for the first year of the “Fifteen Five-Year Plan” are now clear and well-defined.

As the two sessions concluded, the implementation of macro policy tone gradually took shape, and the capital market’s interpretation and deployment of policy dividends entered a critical stage. In this context, leading domestic securities firms and fund institutions have issued opinions, providing in-depth analysis of macro policy guidance, industry opportunities, and investment directions.

Brokerages: Deep Dive into Macro Tone and Policy Insights

China Galaxy Securities: Anchoring the “Fifteen Five-Year Plan” and Defining Investment Themes

China Galaxy Securities’ research report points out that the 2026 government work report features distinct contemporary characteristics and pragmatic orientation. It not only clarifies the strategic anchor points at the start of the “Fifteen Five-Year Plan” but also places unprecedented emphasis on reform and innovation. At the same time, it maintains a focus on people’s livelihoods as the development orientation, making task deployment more pragmatic and actionable than before. The economic growth target is set at 4.5%–5.0%, with a CPI target around 2%, leaving ample policy space for high-quality development. The policy stance remains steady progress, continuing to implement more proactive fiscal policies and moderately easing monetary policy, with a focus on strengthening reform initiatives and macro policy synergy.

China Galaxy Securities recommends paying attention to policy-enabled domestic demand sectors, technological innovation sectors, sectors optimizing structural patterns and reducing internal competition, sectors with leapfrogging potential in overseas markets, and sectors balancing development and security, believing that policies will provide strong guidance for structural market trends.

Zheshang Securities: Consolidate Foundations and Cultivate Strengths, Policy with Flexibility to Ensure Tech Supply

Zheshang Securities summarizes the main theme of the 2026 government work report as “Consolidate foundations and enhance quality.” The report suggests that the moderate downward revision of economic growth targets is not simply a slowdown but a proactive choice guided by correct performance views, aiming to prioritize cultivating new growth drivers and accelerating high-level technological independence and self-reliance. Policy measures are flexible—some easing, some tightening—but policies supporting the tech sector are fully guaranteed.

Zheshang Securities believes that amid increasing global geopolitical tensions, rising commodity prices may boost PPI, but weak downstream demand could limit CPI growth, requiring patience for price recovery. Additionally, employment targets are set higher relative to economic growth, with future efforts likely focusing on targeted employment support for key groups to offset employment pressures during economic restructuring. Lastly, fiscal policy overall remains at last year’s level, with a slight reduction in the broad deficit ratio, but expenditure structures are more focused on boosting consumption and safeguarding livelihoods, emphasizing efficiency and proactive measures.

Guotai Haitong Securities: Continued Positive Policy Tone with Greater Focus on Effectiveness

Guotai Haitong Securities’ chief macro analyst Liang Zhonghua believes that policies continue with a positive tone and pay more attention to effectiveness. The economic targets are set pragmatically, with the reshaping of growth quality and structure still the main theme throughout the year, driven by new productivity and domestic demand. Policy focus is clear: on one hand, leveraging new productivity and domestic demand to reshape growth; on the other, balancing countercyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to address cyclical demand contraction and structural supply-demand mismatches. During this process, policy space is more inclined toward price recovery, fostering new productivity, and structural adjustments like risk clearing, aiming to stabilize the economy while laying a foundation for long-term development.

Funds: Industry Opportunities and Investment Directions

Xinyuan Fund: Favorable Macro Environment for Bonds, A-Share Market Likely to Experience Volatility with Upward Trend

Xinyuan Fund provides a systematic analysis of the macro economy and capital markets for 2026. On the macro level, as supply and demand gradually improve, nominal GDP growth is expected to surpass 2025, indicating that micro-entity income perceptions and corporate profit expectations may see marginal improvements. Fiscal policy remains roughly the same as last year, but the 109 major projects outlined in the “Fifteen Five-Year Plan” provide ample investment resources, supporting infrastructure investment stabilization.

Regarding bonds, Xinyuan Fund believes the macro environment remains friendly to the bond market. However, it notes that current interest rates have already incorporated significant easing expectations. Further downward movement in yields would require stronger catalysts from the central bank through open market operations to guide the funding rate lower. Until then, the bond market is likely to remain in a range-bound oscillation, with increased allocations during dips being a relatively favorable strategy. For equities, as the general price level gradually rises, corporate profit growth is expected to shift from negative to positive, and the A-share market may experience a volatile upward trend with sector differentiation.

Industrial Securities Global Fund: Focus on Domestic Circulation and Embrace New Productivity

Industrial Securities Global Fund points out that the 2026 government work report explicitly emphasizes “adhering to domestic demand-led growth, coordinating consumption promotion and investment expansion, and exploring new space for domestic demand growth,” with particular emphasis on “formulating and implementing income-increasing plans for urban and rural residents,” especially “increasing residents’ property income.” This provides clear guidance for public funds serving the domestic circulation.

In their view, public funds, as inclusive financial tools, need to leverage professional investment management to enable more residents to share the dividends of economic transformation, thereby contributing to the endogenous growth of consumption and creating a positive cycle of income growth, active consumption, and enterprise expansion.

Additionally, in response to the strategic deployment of “cultivating and expanding new drivers,” public funds should actively embrace new productivity, playing a role in value discovery and becoming long-term and patient capital in technology innovation. Since tech companies often require large investments and have long cycles, this necessitates in-depth fundamental research, comprehensive assessment of long-term value and growth potential, and guiding social resources toward truly innovative and core technology fields through capital allocation.

Caitong Fund: More Flexible Goals, Innovative Tools, Focus on Three Long-Term Main Lines

Caitong Fund notes that compared to the 2025 report, the 2026 report features more flexible targets (GDP range goals), more prominent focuses (new productivity), more innovative tools (new types of policy-based financial instruments), deeper reforms, and more pragmatic approaches to people’s livelihoods.

They believe that adjusting economic growth targets is a strategic “speed adjustment” prioritizing quality. Monetary policy will focus more on high-quality easing, and fiscal policy on high efficiency and positivity. For industry investment, Caitong recommends focusing on three long-term themes: first, new productivity centered on high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing; second, the digital China theme aimed at increasing the share of core digital economy industries; third, the green low-carbon and energy transition theme driven by shifting from “dual energy consumption control” to “dual carbon” (carbon emission) control. Coupled with the funding tilt of major projects in six key areas in the “Fifteen Five-Year Plan,” key sectors include computing power and industrial software, clean energy and new power systems, high-end equipment and industrial robots, aerospace and low-altitude economy, equipment renewal and consumer goods, as well as future industries like energy, quantum technology, embodied intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, and 6G.

Shenwan Lingxin Fund: Focus on Nominal Growth and Building a New Intelligent Economy

Shenwan Lingxin Fund emphasizes that policy continues to prioritize nominal growth, with the goal of turning the price level positive this year as a core target for price regulation, making regulatory directions clearer. By addressing internal competition and improving supply-demand relations, the goal is to turn the deflationary PPI into positive territory, injecting momentum into the real economy.

Particularly notable is the emphasis on technological innovation and expanding domestic demand as two key focuses, with “building a new intelligent economy” as a key policy tone. This points to directions for cultivating new productivity: first, strengthening financial empowerment and fully leveraging intangible assets like data and intellectual property; second, cultivating key industries, encouraging state-owned enterprises and central enterprises to open up application scenarios, and building emerging pillar industries such as integrated circuits and low-altitude economy, establishing mechanisms for future industry investment growth; third, creating an intelligent ecosystem by promoting new-generation smart terminals, implementing new infrastructure projects like intelligent computing clusters and energy-computing collaboration, and deepening the integration of AI with the real economy, enabling AI to empower various industries and open new growth space.