March 13 Member Morning Brief: Oil Prices Rapidly Return to $100, US Admits "Powerless" to Escort Hormuz Strait

【Oil prices quickly return to $100】 The global benchmark for crude oil, Brent, has once again surged past $100 per barrel. Iran further attacked several ships in the Persian Gulf, causing two of them to catch fire off the coast of Iraq. U.S. President Trump said that instead of worrying about energy issues, it’s more important to “stop an evil empire,” which is “much more significant and worth paying attention to.” He also wrote on social media, “When oil prices go up, (America) makes a big profit.”

【U.S. admits “powerless” to escort the Strait of Hormuz】 U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry said in an interview with U.S. media today, “We are not prepared to escort (ships) at all right now. All of our military assets are focused on destroying Iran’s offensive capabilities and its related military supply systems.” Perry’s statement completely dispels the escort rumors that previously caused market volatility. On Tuesday, he mistakenly posted on his social media account that the U.S. Navy had completed escort missions, though the post was quickly deleted.

【Iran’s new leader’s first statement vows not to abandon revenge】 According to reports from CCTV News and Xinhua, on March 12 local time, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued his first statement since taking office. Khamenei explicitly stated that Iran will continue to adopt strategic measures, including blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and will open new fronts if necessary. In a statement on Iran’s national television, he said, “We have studied opening other fronts that are inexperienced and highly vulnerable to attack. If the war continues and it aligns with national interests, these fronts will be launched. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz must of course continue.”

【Waterdrop founder warns of mass unemployment and short selling in the future】 Well-known short seller Waterdrop founder Carson Block warned that artificial intelligence is fundamentally changing his market outlook, shifting his overall view from bullish to bearish. He predicts that within three years, 15% of knowledge workers in the U.S. will lose their jobs, potentially triggering a systemic shock to the stock market. Block’s core concern is that AI-driven employment impacts will transmit through the labor market to the financial markets. Once unemployment rises and reduces inflows into retirement accounts like 401(k)s, or even forces unemployed workers to dip into their savings early, the stock market will face ongoing capital outflows, and “no one will be there to catch this falling knife.”

【Honda reports first net loss in 70 years】 Honda announced that due to the cancellation of three new electric vehicle models originally planned for North America, the company may suffer losses of up to 2.5 trillion yen ($157 billion) over the next two years. Facing a cooling U.S. electric vehicle market, this Japanese automaker is under significant pressure and expects its annual net loss to reach as much as 630 billion yen, marking its first annual net loss since going public nearly seventy years ago.