Bitcoin typically shows a pattern of short-term price declines following geopolitical conflicts, followed by rebounds within 50-60 days, with a historical average gain of 31.2%, as increased government spending and monetary expansion ultimately benefit Bitcoin. Recent events, such as the 2026 US-Iran conflict that triggered $358 million in liquidations, indicate that market dynamics are changing. Institutional ETF capital inflows have played a certain buffering role in volatility, while Bitcoin's correlation with risk assets like the Nasdaq has also been strengthening.