Jefferies: Mondi, SCA, and Stora Enso Poised to Be Winners in European Containerboard Market Price Surge

LootboxPhobia · 2026-03-12T21:17:19+00:00

Jefferies analysts note that Mondi, SCA, and Stora Enso are well-positioned to benefit in the European containerboard market due to rising prices and energy cost pressures. German recycled containerboard prices have risen 6%, with energy costs further driving industry price increases. Despite investor skepticism about price hikes, this price appreciation represents a positive signal for manufacturers.

LootboxPhobia

2026-03-12 21:17:19

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Investing.com - Jefferies analysts point out that recent price increases and energy cost pressures are likely to make Mondi, SCA, and Stora Enso potential winners in the European containerboard market.

According to Jefferies data, the price of recycled containerboard in Germany rose by €40 per ton in March, a 6% increase. Additionally, driven by energy costs, industry players have announced an extra €100 per ton price hike. The March price increase followed a cumulative decline of €112.50 per ton (15%) from July to January.

Virgin containerboard prices remained stable month-over-month but typically lag behind recycled paperboard price trends. SCA announced a €100 per ton price increase starting April, a 12% rise.

Waste paper prices stabilized in the first quarter of 2026, rising €2 per ton to €115, below the peak of €189 per ton in June.

Jefferies notes that most investors were skeptical of the initial €100 per ton price increase announced in February and March, which occurred before energy costs rose. They believed that price hikes would fail amid oversupply in Europe and an operating rate of only 84%. The firm states that a €40 or 6% increase in recycled containerboard is a positive signal for European containerboard and carton manufacturers.

Rising energy costs due to Middle East conflicts have increased costs by €30 to €50 per ton. Market leaders Smurfit Westrock (13% market share) and second-ranked SAICA (10% market share) announced an additional €100 per ton increase, a 15% rise.

Jefferies believes that virgin European containerboard producers Mondi, SCA, and Stora Enso will be winners, followed by large integrated carton manufacturers like Smurfit Westrock.

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