US Stock Close | Dow Plunges 739 Points, Nasdaq Falls 1.8%, Bank Stocks Decline, Iran's Supreme Leader Vows Retaliation, Brent Oil Surges Above 100

After oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked by Iranian unmanned boats, UK Defense Secretary John Healey stated that Iran is very likely laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil surged 9.2%, breaking $100 per barrel, reaching a high of $101.8, and closing at $100.46.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Mujeh Tabataba (son of Khamenei), issued a statement for the first time, claiming revenge, opening new fronts, closing the Strait of Hormuz, pressuring enemies, and warning all US military bases in the Middle East to close immediately; otherwise, they will be attacked.

Chubb Insurance (U.S.: CB) announced it will be the primary underwriter for a $20 billion plan led by the U.S. government to insure ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. It will cooperate with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation amid the risks of the Iran conflict.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by as much as 755 points to 46,662, then closed down 739 points at 46,677. The S&P 500 dropped 1.52%, and the Nasdaq declined 1.78%.

Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater restricted redemptions from their private equity funds, triggering a sharp decline in bank stocks. Morgan Stanley fell 4.1%, Goldman Sachs dropped 4.4%, Citibank and Goldman Sachs both declined over 3%, Blue Owl and KKR fell 4.5% and 3.7%, respectively.

Technology stocks were pressured, with Nvidia down 1.5%, Apple down 1.9%, and Tesla down 3.1%.

Last week, US initial unemployment claims were 213,000, below the market expectation of 215,000. For the week ending February 28, the continued claims were 1.85 million, down 21,000 week-on-week, in line with expectations. January new home starts increased 7.2% month-on-month to 1.487 million, higher than the expected 1.34 million.

The US dollar index rebounded above 99, currently at 99.74; concerns about inflation slowing the Fed’s rate hikes caused US long-term bond yields to rise above 4.2%, now at 4.265%. International gold is at $5,140 per ounce, down 0.3%.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for Brent and NY crude oil prices in Q4 2026 from $66 and $62 to $71 and $67 per barrel, citing the current situation in Iran and the possibility that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could last longer than previously estimated.

The bank also warned that if the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz persists until the end of March, international oil prices could exceed the 2008 high, potentially surpassing $147 per barrel. They continue to assume that oil supply passing through the Strait will be only 10% of normal for about 21 days, much longer than the previous estimate of 10 days, after which transportation may gradually recover.

A shooting incident occurred in Michigan, USA, on Thursday, when a man armed with an assault rifle drove into a Jewish synagogue in the Detroit suburbs, and was shot dead by security.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【22:30】Iran’s Supreme Leader speaks for the first time: vows revenge, blockades the Strait of Hormuz, attacks US military bases. Brent crude rises above $100. Dow drops.

【21:30】Supreme Leader: Must close the Strait of Hormuz, US military bases in the Middle East will be attacked. Brent crude surpasses $100. Dow falls 565 points.

【18:20】Dow futures down 217 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.3%. Brent crude exceeds $100.

【13:33】Dow futures down 496 points, at 46,952; S&P futures down 59 points, at 6,720; Nasdaq futures down 222 points or 0.9%, at 24,760.

【13:26】【ORCL Analysis】Oracle’s earnings surge 9% after earnings report; JPMorgan upgrades rating, optimistic about long-term value of data management business.

【12:59】【US Market Focus】Short positions hit over 3-year high; Goldman Sachs: If positive news emerges, US stocks could see “extreme” upside potential.

【11:51】【Oil Price Analysis】IEA releases oil reserves; prices rise nearly 9%. Analysis: “A drop in water,” expecting short-term continued large swings in oil prices.

【11:20】【Iran Crisis】Morgan Stanley maintains forecast of two rate cuts by the Fed this year, but oil shocks may delay rate cuts until September.

【11:04】【Yen Trend】Yen approaches lowest of the year, at 4.92 HKD. However, the situation has changed; analysts expect the official intervention threshold to be higher.

【10:58】【Iran Crisis】Oxford Economics: If oil stays at $140 for two months, global recession and inflation at 5.8% are likely.

【10:07】【Apple】Apple’s foldable iPhone may feature a similar iPad interface after unfolding; wide-screen ratio may be a key selling point?

【09:54】【US Tariffs】US initiates new trade investigations on 16 partners including China, Japan, Korea, and Europe, paving the way for new tariffs.

【08:32】【Gold Trend】Gold declines for the second day, affected by rising oil prices and bleak rate hike outlook.

【07:28】【Iran Crisis】Two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf catch fire and explode; Brent crude surges past $100 again. Iranian officials hint at blocking the Red Sea entrance on the other side (ongoing updates).

【07:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA members agree to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves; US releases 170 million barrels, Japan 80 million, South Korea 22.46 million, UK 13.5 million.

Below $1: US stock market on March 11====

Wednesday: US military warns Iranian civilians to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, pre-attack alert. Oil rises 4%, Dow drops 289, Nasdaq stable.

The US Central Command issues a warning to Iranian civilians, stating that Iran is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military actions, threatening international shipping, and that these are legitimate military targets under international law. Oil prices climb again, with the Dow dropping up to 520 points.

Market close:

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The Dow closes at 47,417, down 289 points; S&P 500 retraces 0.08% to 6,775; Nasdaq slightly up 0.08% at 22,716. Oracle’s earnings and outlook beat expectations, soaring 9.2%; Nvidia up 0.7%.

Oil prices continue to rise, with NY crude at $87.25 (+4.55%) and Brent at $91.98 (+4.76%).

Iranian media reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the Mayuree Naree was attacked after ignoring warnings from IRGC Navy. According to shipping website MarineTraffic, Mayuree Naree is in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The Fars News Agency quotes a military spokesperson: “The policy of symmetrical retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to benefit the US, Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves. The International Energy Agency (IEA) issued a statement that 32 member countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest ever, to address the oil market chaos caused by Middle East conflicts.

Chubb Insurance will lead a US government-led plan to insure ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a $20 billion plan, Chubb will cooperate with the US International Development Finance Corporation (IDFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation amid Iran conflict risks.

US February inflation data met expectations: overall CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year; monthly increase was 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month; core CPI rose 2.5% annually, but monthly increase slowed to 0.2%. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of the Middle East war causing soaring international oil prices.

The Trump administration reportedly will launch trade investigations to pave the way for new tariffs; The New York Times reports that after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariff agenda, the Biden administration will announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering digital service taxes and currency manipulation, marking an important step in rebuilding the “tariff wall.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%. Dow up 101 points, Nasdaq up 0.3%. Oil pulls back 8%.

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%. Oil pulls back 7%. Oracle (ORCL) earnings announced after market close.

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3%, at 24,906.

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces dependence on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%.

【11:00】AI + Defense | Anthropic sues US Department of Defense, demands removal from blacklist.

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says war will end soon; gold stabilizes and rebounds.

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Several oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to break through; Iran issues further warnings. Trump at press conference: Iran war will end soon but no timeline promised (ongoing updates).

【08:26】【AI + Nvidia】Nvidia reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw.”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device launch again, waiting for new Siri.

Below $1: US stock market on March 9====

Monday: Trump: War almost over; oil plunges, Dow rises 239 points

US President Trump in an interview said the war is nearly over, and the conflict has been very complete. Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force; their missiles are left only in scattered numbers. Their drones are being destroyed everywhere, including their drone manufacturing plants.

Market close:

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The Dow closes at 47,706, up 239 points; S&P down 0.21% at 6,636; Nasdaq down 1.5% at 22,061. Oracle’s earnings and outlook beat expectations, soaring 9.2%; Nvidia up 0.7%.

He said, “Look, they have nothing left. Militarily, there’s nothing remaining,” Trump stated. “The US can do many things in the Strait of Hormuz,” threatening Iran with consequences if they obstruct the waterway. “They’ve shot all they can shoot; they’d better not play any tricks, or it will be their end… If they do anything bad, it will be Iran’s end. You will never hear that name again.” Trump also claimed the strait is currently open, and ships are entering, but he is still “considering taking control.”

That afternoon, the US Department of Defense posted on X (formerly Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “No mercy.”

Following the statements, oil prices plummeted, and US stocks rebounded. Brent crude fell 1.5% to $91.2, and NY crude dropped 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially surged 886 points to a high of 47,715, then closed up 239 points at 47,740; the S&P gained 0.8% to 6,795; Nasdaq rose 1.4% to 22,695.

Brent crude oil initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves by IEA to counter the spike in oil prices after the Gulf conflict.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency oil reserves after the US-Israel conflict.

In Brussels, after the G7 finance ministers’ online meeting, Lescure told reporters, “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market if needed, including possibly releasing reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, and currently, there are no supply issues in Europe or the US.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures to support global energy supply, including releasing oil reserves.” He also mentioned that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold an energy ministers’ meeting to discuss further actions.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under the OECD control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all members must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, sufficient to support at least three months of normal consumption.

Market stabilized, the US dollar index fell 0.1% to 98.877; US 10-year Treasury yields steadied at 4.107%.

Gold’s decline narrowed to 0.6%, at $5,138 per ounce; silver rose 2.5% to $86.63.

The US military continues to demonstrate its strength. According to BBC, US B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers gathered at Royal Air Force Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict erupted.

The B-52 is a typical “forward-deployed” American heavy bomber, signaling that large-scale air campaigns are imminent or that the conflict may escalate sharply. As a heavily armed “old yellow cow,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, B-52s can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions, conducting destructive, sustained strikes on infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, US stock markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank UBS notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz out of caution, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank said it will continue to closely monitor the situation. Currently, there is no substantial damage to energy infrastructure, and Iran’s military strength appears to be weakening. Solutions such as ensuring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining that prices are likely to peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.