Morgan Stanley Says Robert Half Recruitment Job Postings Down 73% From Historical Average

Investing.com – According to proprietary analysis data released by Jefferies on Thursday, the HR industry indicators in February showed mixed results. Robert Half Inc (NYSE: RHI) still has job postings 73% below its historical average, while ManpowerGroup Inc (NYSE: MAN) has job postings 6% below its long-term average.

U.S. job postings on Indeed decreased 6% year-over-year in February, both seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted, marking the 40th consecutive month of decline. The decline is the same as in January.

Robert Half’s job postings increased 43% year-over-year and 6% month-over-month at the end of February. However, the year-over-year increase is based on a weak base, as February 2025 job postings are 81% below the historical average. Recruitment postings account for 12% of Robert Half’s total job postings.

ManpowerGroup’s recruitment postings grew 108% year-over-year and 53% month-over-month, but are still 6% below the long-term average. ManpowerGroup’s total job postings are 44% above the historical average, with recruitment postings making up 19% of total.

Non-farm employment in the U.S. decreased by 92,000 in February, below the market expectation of 58,000. Private sector employment fell by 86,000, well below the expected 65,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, up 10 basis points month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 4.3%.

Temporary staffing growth in the U.S. contracted 3.2% year-over-year in February, worsening from January’s 2.2% decline. This marks the 38th consecutive month of contraction in temporary staffing growth, with a long-term average growth rate of 2.7%. The temporary staffing penetration rate slightly declined to 1.54% from the previous month, compared to a five-year average of 1.82%.

Small business optimism index stands at 98.8, down 2% year-over-year and 1% month-over-month, but slightly above its historical average of 98.

Average hourly wages increased 0.4% month-over-month, outperforming market expectations by 10 basis points. Year-over-year, wages rose 3.8%, also 10 basis points above expectations, up 10 basis points from the previous month.

In France, manufacturing PMI fell from 51.2 in January to 50.1 in February, while services PMI improved from 48.4 to 49.6. France’s temporary staffing growth contracted 1.3% year-over-year in February, an improvement of 160 basis points from January’s 2.9% decline.

Jefferies expects Robert Half’s median revenue for Q1 2026 to decrease 4.5% year-over-year, while ManpowerGroup’s Americas region revenue is expected to grow 2% year-over-year.

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