Strait of Hormuz Blockade May Lead to Rising Grain Prices, Aquaculture Faces Significant Losses, Agricultural Cycle Reversal Imminent, Yifangda Agricultural ETF Investment Opportunities Draw Attention

Pig production capacity accelerates clearance: As of March 12, the average price of live pigs nationwide fell below 5 yuan per jin, reaching a 21-year low since October 2001. Coupled with rising feed costs, industry-wide losses per head exceed 300 yuan. Cash flow pressures are accelerating market-driven capacity clearance, marking a window for livestock farming to reposition on the left side.

Grain and oil prices are strongly correlated, currently facing supply shocks: Rising oil prices increase costs for fertilizers and agricultural machinery, directly driving up grain prices. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, it will cut off one-third of global urea exports, potentially severely damaging grain yields. Currently, the global grain stock-to-use ratio has fallen to a cyclical low of 23.8%, with a fragile supply chain, and grain prices may face significant increases.

Related products: Accelerated clearance of livestock, limited planting supply. Agricultural ETF E Fund (562900): aligned with the theme of rising agricultural prices, with 50.1% holdings in livestock (including 43.4% in pig farming and 6.7% in poultry farming), 14% in planting, and 18% in feed. It comprehensively covers the three core sectors of pigs, planting, and feed, making it an efficient tool to grasp the current agricultural cycle reversal.