On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's loss-making supply (the proportion of Bitcoin held at prices lower than their purchase price) is developing toward the 40-45% range, a level historically associated with early stages of bear markets in cycles such as 2015, 2019, and 2022. While this indicator has risen as Bitcoin price consolidates, it remains below the 50% level seen at the bottom of previous cycles, suggesting that current market conditions differ from previous capitulation phases.