How should quantitative thinking approach the current market conditions?

When writing the content of the title, I want to say a few words off-topic: [Taogu Ba]

(Off-topic is a bit long, please pay attention, thank you)

Honestly, it’s been a long time since I posted a new main thread. Of course, the New Year and some local customs kept me busy, so I delayed posting here. But I said before, give me a few more days, and I will fully return here.

My posts have always emphasized being high-quality (7 oils), and I keep urging everyone to support with “Go for it.” Actually, this doesn’t give a good impression, because a 10-yuan fuel coupon is a lot for some people. So, many have a speculative mindset: even if they copy my analysis and make money, they never consider supporting me after seeing the post; they just wait for others to support, thus saving that 10-yuan coupon.

Of course, compared to the millions or hundreds of thousands of mature small investors’ funds, these 10 yuan are not a big deal. They value the quality of my market predictions. So, most of these people don’t care about 10 yuan. Most silver and gold supporters become so through tips and support, transforming from ordinary fans.

I’ve always valued my posts as high-quality, and I’ve cared about this for over three years. But the more I care, the less efficient I am at producing high-quality posts. Instead, I feel more disappointed and less motivated to update. Then, with fewer updates, support drops further, creating a vicious cycle.

You should know, my posts are highly accurate in market prediction. For example, ten days ago, the electric power sector was predicted to be a mainstream trend, and it turned out to be true, as shown below:

[Insert image]

Besides these, there are many more “early warning” posts.

My point is, even a small example can hit the market’s key points; if I focus and do more for everyone, what could I achieve?

So, here, the effect is mutual. The more enthusiastic your feedback, the more I want to share early warnings.

Your enthusiasm includes:

Support, tips, likes, comments, shares.

But I’ve been supporting support for so many years just by urging you. My purpose is to make all posts display the “High-Quality” tag, which looks more comfortable and respectable.

In other words, I’ve developed a habit and requirement over the years: if I give up this requirement, the posts above will definitely not have the “High-Quality” tag, and that will break the long-standing mindset. Changing this decision requires great courage and determination, and it comes with a strange sense of loss.

If I give up this requirement, I start to feel discouraged. In fact, I’ve already experienced this twice—when I was about to leave, I couldn’t bear the private messages from loyal fans, so I came back.

This time, I’ve made a change:

I will no longer call for high-quality posts. After all, supporting support with 10 yuan, I don’t get a single cent. I’m happy to urge you to support, but all the income goes to the platform. When I gain face, I don’t get a penny. That 10 yuan is paid to the platform. You should thank the platform for giving you the opportunity to communicate with me here.

But, what do I get in return?

So, I make this painful decision:

Support coupons are no longer needed; if you think my writing is hard work, each of you can:

Send 100 points;
200 points;
300 points;
1000 points;
2000 points;

Feel free to send points. I will judge the popularity of my posts based on the number of tips. If it’s too quiet, I will implement this support for 1-2 months. If it remains cold, some people’s attitude may gradually turn to extreme disappointment, like other teachers who slowly disappear from view. No one leaves without reason—only when absolutely necessary, choosing: “Break the wrist and retreat to survive.”

Having experienced so much, I realize I might, like other big V influencers, gradually fade from the public eye—out of helplessness, out of social courtesy. After all, if my posts really become popular, who would be so discouraged as to disappear? But if I don’t do this, what do I gain?

It’s better to:

Give some support to boost popularity, weighing how much attention I get. If it’s not enough, then who knows what will happen later—no regrets. I’ve worked hard, but sometimes, it’s all just for a false reputation—nothing gained, years of effort wasted. What’s the point of so many high-quality posts? What use do they have for me? Not taking a single cent or penny—this is the regret in reality. People change; after more experience, they may become more utilitarian and realistic.

So, I decide:

In future posts, I will update daily. You don’t need to support support anymore; just encourage with points voluntarily, based on your perception of my writing.

This approach will be implemented for 2-3 months, until June 5, 2026, the 4th anniversary of my being a big V. If it remains this cold, then by that time, not only I will be discouraged.

Of course, if you think my account “Yu Yue Yuan Fang” is meaningful to you, you can private message me. I might one day give this account to you—if you have the ability, patience, and level to update this account like I do, I am willing!

No one leaves without regrets, but sincerity can also be helpless.

Back to the main topic: How should we face the current market in the quant ecosystem?

First, the sectors are very hard to sustain.
Like the lobster, computing power, electricity sectors a few days ago—once the hype peaks, the next day it’s gone; just like yesterday’s chemical industry, today it’s also not sustained. Currently, quant funds can create a sector surge on the same day, but it’s very difficult to have a grand market trend like last year’s commercial aerospace the next day. We should do: If you miss the sector’s rally on the day, try not to follow up the next day when the sector peaks. This is very important! For example, two days ago, I bought Shun Na Shares after the halt, which was a bad move; yesterday’s chemical sector surged, and today I bought Baichuan Shares, which was nerve-wracking. Although there’s a chance of a rebound the next day, it’s just a rebound.

Second, try to anticipate the expectation gap.
This means, whether in sectors or individual stocks, don’t follow the consensus. Even when the consensus is bearish, don’t buy because you think you’re low enough—buying at the middle of the move can lead to a limit-down. Similarly, don’t chase stocks or sectors that are expected to rise together. For example, yesterday’s chemical sector had a small intra-day peak; Baichuan Shares opened with a straight-up move—was that good?
When chasing expectation-gap stocks, for example, if a stock opens with everyone thinking it’s a “nuclear button” stock, you shouldn’t buy it immediately because the expectation gap is a quant-driven reversal. As a seller, you shouldn’t sell based on expectations either. If a stock’s expectation is uniform, don’t buy it; buy it after it drops, at a lower cost. The simplest example is Ning Liu Construction, the lobster leader, which opened with a straight-up move after a one-word limit, but it was a high opening, so it’s a sign of expectation gap—quantitative trading will teach you to act accordingly.
If a stock hits the limit halt on the day, and the expectation is “nuclear button,” then the opposite expectation gap is: don’t buy it, because it might open higher the next day. Following expectations blindly can lead to being caught in a reversal.

Third, when selling stocks, consider the stock’s position and avoid rigid patterns.
Many stocks, when opening, are driven by quant funds, which may follow with a quick surge—like a volumeless quick rise. In such cases, don’t be too rigid; consider the stock’s position, index, and follow the quant logic. For example, if a stock opens 5 seconds after the market opens from flat to +5%, that’s a typical point where quant funds like to sell. Usually, 3%, 5%, 7% moves are prone to trigger selling pressure.
Look at yesterday’s Yuegui Shares: it’s a less-known, non-mainstream sector stock. It opened slightly higher, surged over 5% instantly—wasn’t that a sign of selling pressure? Quant funds will teach you to act accordingly. Similarly, if it opens slightly lower, say -1%, it might rise to +3%, which is a typical quant move.

What about tomorrow’s market?
I’ve been emphasizing that the index is much stronger than expected. If it were going to fall, it would have done so clearly today. So why isn’t it falling?
This suggests strong support at this level. A strong index market with a strong expectation gap. The resistance of the Shanghai Composite is around 4175 points, but there’s still some distance to go. Today’s volume was somewhat large; a proper adjustment tomorrow, followed by a rebound with another positive day, is highly probable.
Emotionally, there’s no “nuclear button” market here. The day before yesterday, Meili Yun almost hit the limit down; yesterday, it didn’t. I’ll say again:

Overnight nuclear button? Quant funds will teach you to act!

Regarding sectors, I reiterate that the current main sector is electricity—undeniable. As for individual stocks, the analysis is up to the experts.

Currently holding:
China Energy Construction, Energy Saving Wind Power, Ningbo Construction.
This week, I am also watching GCL New Energy, Aerospace Development, Goldwind, Huasheng Tiancheng, etc., all showing the level of quant analysis.

Thank you.

Back to the beginning: For future new posts, if you find them valuable, please support with tips, likes, comments, and shares as you wish.

Disclaimer: The above logic involves individual stocks and does not constitute third-party guidance or advice.