【Institutional Strategy】A-shares Expected to Maintain Relatively Strong Resilience Compared to Overseas Markets

China Securities believes that on Wednesday, the Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out and rebounded in the early trading session, then fell again in the afternoon before rebounding once more; the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index opened high and moved higher early on, but retreated near midday, then oscillated and declined in the afternoon, narrowing the gains. During the trading session, industries such as batteries, photovoltaic equipment, chemical raw materials, and wind power equipment performed well; sectors like small metals, power grid equipment, semiconductors, and IT services performed weaker. Recent escalation of Middle East tensions has triggered turbulence in global capital markets, and concerns about stagflation caused by soaring oil prices have suppressed risk appetite. Considering the clearer macro policy tone domestically, the market has a solid bottom support. The central bank has explicitly stated it will flexibly use tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity; at the same time, supporting China Securities Finance Corporation to play a role similar to a “stabilization fund” has boosted market confidence in subsequent trends. It is expected that the Shanghai Composite Index will likely remain in slight oscillation and consolidation, and investors are advised to closely monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy developments.

Dongwu Securities believes that on Wednesday, the A-share market opened flat and fluctuated narrowly in the early session. The lithium battery, chemical, chemical fiber, coal, and photovoltaic sectors performed strongly, and market sentiment was relatively good. Meanwhile, sectors like aviation, small metals, AI, and semiconductors experienced adjustments, with rapid sector rotation and moderate continuity. In the afternoon, market volatility increased, with the STAR Market experiencing slightly larger adjustments. The Shanghai Composite Index continued to fluctuate above 4,000 points, while the ChiNext and STAR Market showed divergence. In the short term, the market is in a somewhat conflicted stage, with faster sector rotation indicating that large funds currently lack clear direction. It is advisable to continue observing narrow fluctuations, and a breakout upward will depend on the implementation of external news and the sustained performance of new core hotspots. Patience is recommended.

Caitong Securities states that on Wednesday, the three major A-share indices continued their oscillation and rebound. The chemical sector strengthened, and energy storage was active, while sectors like rare earths and military industry performed weakly. Overall, although the market maintained a rebound trend, sector rotation was rapid, with the previously leading STAR Market experiencing divergence. New energy and resource stocks rotated in performance, reflecting that no sustained and strong leading direction has emerged in the current market, and funds are mainly switching between hotspots. This may somewhat limit the height of this rebound. Therefore, in the short term, as overseas macro disturbances stabilize, the market may remain steady with mainly oscillations. In the medium term, the impact of overseas macro events persists, and a trend in A-shares is still awaited. Until the end of April, the market is likely to fluctuate within a wide range, with increased volatility. It is recommended to reasonably control positions and wait patiently for signs of a market turning point. It is important to note that in recent years, regulators have strengthened strategic reserve and market stabilization mechanisms to maintain market stability. The volatility of the A-share market has significantly decreased, and it is expected that A-shares will remain resilient compared to overseas markets, so excessive worry is unwarranted.