【US Stock Market Report】Iran Has Laid Naval Mines, Brent Crude Rebounds Above $100; Iran's Supreme Leader Speaks for First Time: Vows Retaliation, Dow Jones Fell 700 Points at One Point (Continuously Updated)

After oil tankers in the Persian Gulf were attacked by Iranian unmanned vessels, UK Defense Secretary John Healey stated that Iran is very likely laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude oil prices rose by 10%, breaking $100 per barrel, currently at $101.25.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Mujeh Taba (son of Khamenei) issued a statement for the first time, claiming revenge, opening new fronts, closing the Strait of Hormuz, pressuring enemies, and warning all US military bases in the Middle East to close immediately; otherwise, they will be attacked.

Chubb Insurance announced it will be the primary underwriter for a $20 billion US government-led plan to insure ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, collaborating with the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and other commercial vessels resume navigation amid Iran-related risks.

US stocks fell sharply, with the Dow dropping as much as 705 points to 46,712, the S&P 500 down 1.3% at 6,690, and the Nasdaq down 1.7% at 22,326.

Last week, US initial unemployment claims were 213,000, below the expected 215,000. For the week ending February 28, continued claims were 1.85 million, down 21,000 from the previous week, in line with expectations. January new home starts increased by 7.2% month-on-month to 1.487 million, surpassing the forecast of 1.34 million.

The US dollar index recovered above 99, currently at 99.56; market concerns about inflation slowing the Fed’s rate cuts, with US long-term bond yields rising above 4.2%, currently at 4.23%. International gold is at $5,140 per ounce, down 0.3%.

Goldman Sachs revised its Q4 2026 Brent and NYMEX crude oil price forecasts from $66 and $62 per barrel to $71 and $67, citing the current Iran war situation and longer-than-expected disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank also warned that if the blockage persists until the end of March, international oil prices could exceed the 2008 high, potentially surpassing $147 per barrel. Their baseline assumption is that oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz will drop to 10% of normal for about 21 days, longer than the previous estimate of 10 days, after which transportation may gradually recover.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【22:30】Iran’s Supreme Leader speaks for the first time: vows revenge, blockades the Strait of Hormuz, attacks US military bases. Brent crude surpasses $100, Dow drops.

【21:30】Supreme Leader: Must close the Strait of Hormuz, US military bases in the Middle East will be attacked. Brent crude exceeds $100, Dow drops 565 points.

【18:20】Dow futures down 217 points, Nasdaq futures down 0.3%, Brent crude exceeds $100.

【13:33】Dow futures down 496 points, at 46,952; S&P futures down 59 points, at 6,720; Nasdaq futures down 222 points or 0.9%, at 24,760.

【13:26】【ORCL Analysis】Oracle’s earnings surge 9% after earnings report; JPMorgan upgrades rating, optimistic about long-term value of data management business.

【12:59】【US Stock Focus】Short positions hit over 3-year high; Goldman Sachs: If positive news emerges, US stocks could see “extreme” upside potential.

【11:51】【Oil Price Analysis】IEA releases oil reserves; prices rise nearly 9%, analysis: “a drop in the bucket,” short-term oil prices expected to fluctuate significantly.

【11:20】【Iran Crisis】Morgan Stanley maintains forecast of two rate cuts by the Fed this year, but oil shocks may delay rate cuts until September.

【11:04】【Yen Trend】Yen approaches its lowest of the year, at 4.92 HKD; the situation has changed, and official intervention thresholds are now higher.

【10:58】【Iran Crisis】Oxford Economics: If oil stays at $140 for two months, global recession and inflation at 5.8% are likely.

【10:07】【Apple】Rumors suggest foldable iPhone may feature a similar interface to iPad, with wide-screen aspect ratio as a key selling point?

【09:54】【US Tariffs】US initiates new trade investigations on 16 partners including China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, paving the way for new tariffs.

【08:32】【Gold Price Trend】Gold declines for the second day, affected by rising oil prices and bleak rate hike outlook.

【07:28】【Iran Crisis】Two oil tankers in the Persian Gulf catch fire and explode; Brent crude surges past $100 again. Iranian officials hint at closing the Red Sea entrance on the other side (ongoing updates).

【07:15】【Iran Crisis】IEA members agree to release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves; US releases 170 million barrels, Japan 80 million, South Korea 22.46 million, UK 13.5 million.

Below $1: US stock market overview on March 11====

Wednesday: US military warns Iranian civilians to stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, pre-attack alert. Oil prices rise 4%, Dow drops 289 points, Nasdaq stable.

The US Central Command issues a warning to Iranian civilians, stating Iran is using civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz for military actions, threatening international shipping, and legally becoming military targets under international law. Oil prices climb again, with the Dow dropping up to 520 points.

Market close summary:

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The Dow closes at 47,417, down 289 points; S&P 500 retraces 0.08% at 6,775; Nasdaq slightly up 0.08% at 22,716. Oracle’s earnings and outlook beat expectations, soaring 9.2%; Nvidia up 0.7%.

Oil prices continue rising, with NYMEX at $87.25 (+4.55%) and Brent at $91.98 (+4.76%).

Iranian media reports that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that the vessel Mayuree Naree was attacked after ignoring warnings from IRGC Navy. According to shipping site marinetraffic, Mayuree Naree is in the Strait of Hormuz.

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The Fars News Agency quotes a military spokesperson: “The policy of proportional retaliation has ended; from now on, our policy will be continuous strikes. No oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz to benefit the US, Zionist regime, and their partners.”

However, Japan and other countries will release oil reserves. IEA states that 32 member countries have agreed to release 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, the largest in history, to address the oil market chaos caused by Middle East conflict.

Chubb Insurance will lead a US government-led plan to insure ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. As part of a $20 billion plan, Chubb will cooperate with the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to help oil tankers and commercial ships resume navigation amid Iran-related risks.

US February inflation data met expectations: overall CPI rose 2.4% annually, monthly increase was 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from last month; core CPI rose 2.5% annually, but monthly increase slowed to 0.2%. Notably, this does not yet reflect the impact of soaring oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.

Reports suggest the Trump administration will launch trade investigations to pave the way for new tariffs; The New York Times cites sources that after the Supreme Court rejected Trump’s tariff agenda, the Biden administration will announce a series of trade investigations on Wednesday under Section 301 of the Trade Act, covering digital service taxes and currency manipulation, marking an important step in rebuilding the “tariff wall.”

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.

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Market Trends:

【21:30】Memory stocks rebound; Micron up 2%. Dow up 101 points, Nasdaq up 0.3%. Oil pulls back 8%.

【18:00】Dow futures up 101 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.3%. Oil pulls back 7%. Oracle (ORCL) earnings announced after market close.

【12:43】Dow futures down 183 points, at 47,586; S&P futures down 24 points, at 6,777; Nasdaq futures down 84 points or 0.3%, at 24,906.

【12:09】【Apple】Apple reduces dependence on China; iPhone production in India now accounts for 25%.

【11:00】AI + Defense | Anthropic sues US Department of Defense, demands removal from blacklist.

【10:31】【Iran Crisis】Trump says war will end soon; gold rebounds sharply.

【08:28】【Iran Crisis】Several oil tankers have reached the strait attempting to break through; Iran issues further warnings. Trump at press conference: war will end soon but no timeline promised (ongoing updates).

【08:26】【AI + NVDA】Nvidia reportedly plans to launch open-source AI platform “NemoClaw.”

【08:00】【Apple】Apple reportedly delays smart home display device launch, waiting for new Siri.

Below $1: US stock market overview on March 9====

Monday: Trump says war is nearly over; oil prices plunge, Dow rises 239 points.

US President Trump in an interview said the war is nearly over, describing it as very complete; Iran has no navy, no communications, no air force, and only a few missiles left. Their drones are being destroyed everywhere, including drone manufacturing plants.

Market close summary:

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The Dow closes at 47,706, up 239; S&P down 0.21% at 6,736; Nasdaq down 1.5% at 22,061. Trump claims Iran has nothing left militarily, warns Iran that any obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to severe consequences, threatening that Iran’s name will never be heard again. He also states the strait is currently open, with ships entering, but he is still considering taking control.

Later that afternoon, US Defense Department posts on X (Twitter): “We are just getting started” and “No mercy.”

Following the statements, oil prices sharply decline, US stocks rebound. Brent crude drops 1.5% to $91.2, NYMEX drops 3.4% to $88.

The Dow initially surged 886 points to 47,706 but closed up only 239 points at 47,740; S&P down 0.8%, at 6,795; Nasdaq up 1.4%, at 22,695.

Brent crude initially surged nearly 30%, approaching $120 per barrel. G7 finance ministers held an emergency meeting to discuss coordinated release of strategic oil reserves via IEA to counter the spike.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said the G7 has not yet decided on releasing emergency reserves after the US-Israel war.

Lescure told reporters after the G7 finance ministers’ online meeting in Brussels: “Our consensus is to use all necessary means to stabilize the market, including possible release of reserves.” He added that governments are closely monitoring the situation, with no supply issues reported in Europe or the US.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “The IEA calls on countries to coordinate the release of oil reserves. Given the current situation, the G7 has agreed to continue closely monitoring energy markets and take necessary measures, including releasing reserves.” He also mentioned that OECD, World Bank, and IMF officials participated in the meeting. The G7 will soon hold an energy ministers’ meeting to discuss further actions.

As of 2022 data, IEA member countries’ emergency oil reserves under OECD control are estimated at over 1.2 billion barrels, mostly crude oil. According to IEA regulations, all members must maintain emergency reserves equivalent to at least 90 days of net imports, sufficient to support consumption for at least three months.

Market stabilizes, US dollar index down 0.1% at 98.877; US 10-year Treasury yields steady at 4.107%.

Gold prices narrowed their decline to 0.6%, at $5,138, silver up 2.5% at $86.63.

US military continues to demonstrate force. According to BBC, US B-52 and B-1 heavy bombers are stationed at RAF Fairford in the UK, with three B-52s landing in one day—the first time B-52s have appeared in the UK since the conflict erupted.

B-52s are typical US “forward-deployed” strategic bombers, signaling imminent large-scale air campaigns or escalation. As heavily armed “old yellow cows,” once enemy air defenses are weakened, they can deliver large quantities of conventional ground-attack munitions for sustained destruction of infrastructure, industrial targets, or large ground forces.

Additionally, US stock markets will open one hour earlier at 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong time due to daylight saving time.

Swiss bank Julius Baer notes that the oil market has entered a panic state, with prices soaring into triple digits, mainly driven by market sentiment, as the conflict itself has not seen any substantial changes. So far, supply disruptions are mainly due to cautious ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz, causing trade blockages rather than military blockades. However, it is expected that in the coming week and beyond, Middle Eastern oil supply could face up to 75% shutdown.

The bank will continue to monitor the situation closely. Currently, no significant damage to energy infrastructure has been reported, and Iran’s military power appears to be weakening. Solutions such as ensuring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain feasible. Given the fog of war, they reaffirm a neutral stance on oil and natural gas, maintaining the expectation that energy prices will peak at current or slightly higher levels.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updated. See the next page for details.