💥Global Oil Crisis and Its Impact on Markets!!

Status: Due to the war between the US-Israel and Iran (for ~12-14 days since )28 February(), the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed. Iran's new Leader and the IRGC have announced they will not allow passage; ~500 tankers are stuck in the Gulf. ~(20% of global oil supply )20 million barrels/day( has been disrupted, Gulf production has taken a serious hit.
Prices:
• Pre-war ~70-75 $
• Peak ~119-120 $
• Currently Brent ~99-100 $ )daily +8-9% gain, monthly +46%+(.
Measures Taken:
• IEA )including G7( historic decision: 400 million barrels of strategic reserves release )US 172 million, Japan ~80 million, etc.(.
• Goal: Close short-term supply gap, contain panic and prices.
• Impact: Provides partial relief in the short term )1-2 months( )~20-30 day buffer(, but insufficient; reserves enter the market within weeks/months.
War Duration and Price Impact:
• If it ends within 1-2 weeks: Prices will quickly drop to 80-90 $/barrel )reserves sufficient(.
• If it lasts 1-3 months: 110-135 $/barrel )even 145-185 $(; stagflation risk increases.
• Long-term )4+ months( / permanent Strait of Hormuz closure: 150-200 $/barrel being discussed )Iran's warning: 200 $(.
• EIA/IEA estimate )with moderation assumptions#petrol #: Next 2 months >95 $, Q3 2026 ~below 80 $, 2027 ~64 $.
Conclusion:
Strategic reserve releases soften the price shock but don't end the war. The war's duration is the real determinant. If Hormuz doesn't reopen, prices stay high, global economy #ekonomi #inflation, recession#borsa #
The current state and future of the Iran War determines oil prices, and oil prices chart the market's direction. From this perspective, the war's trajectory is the main determinant.
oil market stocks #crypto