Major Surges in Gold, Silver, and Copper: Market Signals Behind the Rise——Viewing the Present From a 40-Year Historical Cycle

Recently, the turbulence in the gold, silver, and copper markets has attracted widespread attention. Whether from traditional investors or crypto participants, everyone is discussing this phenomenon. The surge in gold and silver prices is not an isolated event but implies deeper market signals.

Why Are Gold, Silver, and Copper Moving Collectively? Unprecedented Market Heat

Looking at recent market performance, gold, silver, and copper have indeed been remarkable. Since early 2024, gold has risen by 150%, regaining high levels; silver has also increased nearly 150% since mid-2025, with market enthusiasm clearly heating up. This phenomenon has spread across various sectors, even traditional crypto communities are actively discussing investments in gold, silver, and copper.

Market sentiment is at a fever pitch. It reminds us of a classic investment adage: “Sell when everyone is talking, buy when no one is paying attention.” When even street vendors are discussing precious metals, does it mean the market is overheated? This is a question worth pondering.

Twice in 40 Years: A Repetition of Historical Patterns

To understand the current situation, we need to review history. Data shows that similar surges in gold, silver, and copper have occurred twice before: during 1979-1980 and 2009-2011.

First Wave (1979-1980):
During this period, gold skyrocketed from 200 to 867, a fourfold increase. Silver performed even more astonishingly, rising from 9 in August 1979 to 48 in 1980, over five times higher. Market enthusiasm for precious metals reached a frenzy.

Second Wave (2009-2011):
This cycle lasted longer. Gold, starting from around 200 in 2001, slowly climbed over five years to over 700. After a brief correction during the 2008 financial crisis, gold was “re-energized,” soaring from 700 to over 1900 within two years, more than doubling. Silver, from 17 in July 2010, surged to 50 by May 2011, tripling in less than a year.

Deep Logic Behind the Surge: Inflation and Low/Negative Interest Rates

Why did gold, silver, and copper experience crazy rallies during these two periods? The answer lies in macroeconomic environments.

1979-1980 Environment:
The collapse of the Bretton Woods system destroyed the dollar’s “value anchor,” leading to excessive dollar issuance. Coupled with two oil crises, the US core CPI hit 11.3% in 1979 and climbed to 14% in 1980. Real interest rates remained negative for a long time. Under these conditions, gold, silver, and copper, as inflation hedges, naturally became safe havens.

2009-2011 Environment:
After the 2008 global financial crisis, the Fed launched multiple rounds of quantitative easing (QE). From November 2008 to March 2010, the first QE injected $1.7 trillion; from November 2010 to June 2011, the second round added $600 billion; from September 2011 to December 2012, the third round added $667 billion. This liquidity directly pushed up prices of precious metals including gold, silver, and copper.

Common Features:
Both surges stemmed from a combination of “inflation + low/negative interest rates.” US debt issues also surfaced during both periods, further fueling investor demand for precious metals.

Current Environment: Contrasts and Similarities

Interestingly, the current environment differs significantly from these two historical periods. As of the latest data, US inflation has been contained below 3%, and interest rates are at 3.75%, with no negative interest rates. On the surface, conditions for rampant inflation like before are absent.

So, what is driving this surge in gold, silver, and copper now? Market interpretations include:

• One view suggests that the US government may use future monetary policy to address rising debt, prompting investors to preemptively bet on currency depreciation.
• Another worries that the stock market at high levels, along with AI bubble risks, could trigger a new financial crisis.

While these perspectives have some validity, the logic today is more complex and harder to fully summarize than during the previous episodes.

Market Turn After Corrections: Shifts in Investment Trends

History offers another important perspective. Examining the trends after previous surges in gold, silver, and copper reveals clear patterns.

Post-1982 Shift:
Gold plummeted from 865 in 1980 to 300 in 1982, a decline of over 60%. From 1982 to 2000, gold performed poorly, even dropping to around 250. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 soared from 100 in 1982 to 1500 in 2000, beginning an 18-year bull market.

Post-2015 Shift:
Gold, after peaking at 1900 in 2011, gradually fell to 1000 by 2015, halving in four years. It remained weak in 2016 and 2018. In contrast, the US stock market rose from 1000 in 2011 to 4500 in 2022, a 350% increase.

Pattern Emerges:
Every time gold, silver, and copper start declining, stocks tend to rise; when gold loses shine, equities shine. The underlying logic relates to economic cycles: gold rallies often correspond to inflation and currency devaluation, while stock growth aligns with economic prosperity and corporate earnings.

Based on economic cycle theory, where might we be now?

• Inflation is under control (CPI 2.7%), ruling out high-inflation periods.
• Interest rates are positive, with no negative rates in sight, ruling out aggressive easing.
• The economy continues to grow without signs of recession.

In summary, current conditions suggest we are in an “economic prosperity” phase.

Outlook for 2026: Who Will Take Over the Rise of Gold, Silver, and Copper?

Based on this analysis, the investment outlook for 2026 is optimistic. Aside from the potential black swan event of a “debt ceiling crisis,” the overall economic environment shows no major red flags. If a debt crisis does occur, the world would enter a “winter,” and no assets would be safe—this is not a rational assumption for investment.

Therefore, following historical patterns and current economic cycles, US stocks still have room to grow. For crypto assets, given their high correlation with US stocks, as long as stocks remain strong, crypto markets are unlikely to weaken significantly.

It’s also important to note that when gold, silver, and copper surge late in their cycles, it often signals a market top. The current popularity could indicate that the cycle of gold, silver, and copper surges is nearing its end. Based on past experiences, corrections in gold, silver, and copper tend to last for years, during which large amounts of capital seek new safe havens or growth channels. Stocks and crypto markets are likely to be the main beneficiaries of this capital shift.

From this perspective, the future trajectory of gold, silver, and copper is not just about precious metals but may also herald a new upward cycle in stocks and cryptocurrencies. Investors should carefully weigh the medium-term risks in precious metals and prepare for opportunities in other asset classes.