Don’t Be Fooled by the Rally! Polymarket Odds That Bitcoin (BTC) Will Fall Below $50,000 Jump to 60%

FomoAnxiety · 2026-03-04T16:52:28+00:00

Despite Bitcoin's recent rise above $70,000, analysts and traders remain bearish, with many predicting a drop below $50,000. Concerns about market dynamics and fading hopes for interest rate cuts contribute to this skepticism.

FomoAnxiety

2026-03-04 16:52:28

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While retail investors might be celebrating that Bitcoin (BTC) is again trading above $70,000, traders and analysts aren’t convinced and continue to bet against the largest cryptocurrency.

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In fact, a growing number of traders on Polymarket are betting that Bitcoin’s price will fall below the key threshold of $50,000 in coming months. According to the predictions market, the number of professional traders who think that BTC will sink below $50,000 has risen to 60%.

And it could get worse from there. Several analysts warn that Bitcoin falling to $50,000 could precipitate a sharp downward spiral for the cryptocurrency. Polymarket contracts currently show a 39% chance that Bitcoin will fall as low as $40,000 before the current carnage is over.

Is Bitcoin a Safe Haven for Investors?

On social media platforms and chat boards, investors are cheering as Bitcoin’s price rises back to $73,000 from as low as $65,000 a day earlier. Many investors are saying that BTC is proving its use case as a safe haven asset in times of market turmoil and geopolitical upheaval.

But again, traders, analysts, and institutional investors disagree. Several analysts say BTC’s price is rising quickly as options traders who bet on the price falling are being forced to cover their short bets by purchasing Bitcoin.

In a note to clients, analysts at JPMorgan Chase ($JPM ) say the short-term outlook for Bitcoin and other crypto remains bearish as hopes fade for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year and amid continued outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the spot price of BTC and other digital assets…

Bitcoin’s Three-Month Performance

The chart below shows that Bitcoin has struggled in recent months and declined nearly 25% in the last 12 weeks as the selloff in cryptocurrencies that began in October 2025 has continued.

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