Cannons and Candlesticks: When War Meets the Bull Market

March 3, 2026, the world is not peaceful.

News from across the ocean reports: the United States announces an imminent "large-scale attack" on Iran. Geopolitical clouds instantly cast a shadow over the globe, crude oil prices surge, gold returns to the safe haven, and Bitcoin—once mocked as a "risk asset"—defies the odds and climbs above $70,000, reaching a new phase high.

This scene is somewhat surreal.

Traditional textbooks tell us: when war breaks out, funds should hide in gold and oil. But this time, Bitcoin not only didn't fall but actually rose confidently. Someone joked in a group chat: "When the cannon fires, gold piles up; when the drone flies, Bitcoin takes off."

Jokes aside, there is indeed a deeper logic worth pondering behind this.

First, this rebound is not isolated. Gold, oil, and Bitcoin all strengthen simultaneously, indicating that the market is not just "hedging" but is simultaneously betting on "hedging + inflation resistance." Geopolitical conflicts push energy prices higher, which in turn raises inflation expectations. Rising inflation expectations devalue dollar assets—at this point, Bitcoin's value as a "non-sovereign asset" is amplified.

Second, market expectations for the Federal Reserve are also subtly shifting. Escalating conflicts may drag down the economy, making the Fed hesitant to raise interest rates; but if inflation is pushed higher, rate cuts become a distant hope. This dilemma makes Bitcoin an "uncertainty hedge."

But to be honest, is Bitcoin at $70,000 really stable?

Not necessarily. Geopolitical conflicts are often short-term pulses. Once the situation clarifies, market focus will quickly return to fundamentals. Currently, US stocks, US bonds, and the dollar are all in sensitive positions, and any small disturbance could trigger a chain reaction.

For ordinary investors, rather than worrying about tonight's ups and downs, it's better to think about a more fundamental question: in your asset allocation, is there a position reserved for "uncertainty"? $BTC

Gold has it, oil has it, and Bitcoin has it too. The only difference is whether you're willing to hold onto that answer that lets you sleep peacefully amid the gunfire. #美伊局勢影響