Odaily Editorial Team Tea Gathering (March 4th)

This is an “informal” column from the Odaily editorial team. The author shares real-time thoughts and different perspectives on industry news, data, hot events, and their peripheral details; explores investment ideas and opportunity hypotheses still under validation — they may not be direct wealth secrets, but perhaps just the issues themselves; shares observations gained from exchanges with industry practitioners; and presents materials that genuinely enhance our understanding, whether from internal or external sources.

The content of this column is based on the real investment and observation experiences of Odaily editorial team members. It does not accept any form of commercial advertising and does not constitute investment advice (after all, we are also experienced in losing money). Its purpose is only to broaden perspectives and supplement information sources, not to create consensus. Welcome to join the Odaily community (Telegram group, X official account) for exchanges, questions, and banter.

Asher (X: @Asher_0210)

Profile: Mainly involved in prediction markets, avoids contracts, no desire to buy spot.

Share: Since the beginning of the year, I haven’t opened trading platform apps much; my focus has been on popular projects in the interactive prediction market track:

Top projects Polymarket and Kalshi. Kalshi has been abandoned directly; non-US users cannot complete KYC. Although Polymarket has airdrop expectations, it currently lacks a points system or other incentive mechanisms, making potential returns hard to assess. Since most event market prices on the platform still have zero trading fees, the main interaction method is used to hedge positions on other platforms.

Although Opinion has been collectively attacked, I still believe BNB Chain can produce prediction market projects. Recently, Opinion has been heavily criticized by early users. The airdrop share is only 3.5%, with each point valued at about $6, but many users’ point costs are between $10–$15, so almost everyone is being “ripped off.” Even more absurd, many top contributors who have paid substantial fees were ultimately labeled as witches. This operation has basically crushed the sentiment in the prediction market sector of the BNB Chain ecosystem, causing TVL to plummet. But I still believe in and interact with predict.fun, which currently has a TVL of $15 million. According to community news, big moves are expected to start this week, hoping to attract users from Opinion.

Dingdang: Dingdang DD (@XiaMiPP)

Profile: Pure newbie~

Share: Recently focusing on three altcoins: MORPHO, VVV, and POWER.

MORPHO and VVV have both been covered in articles, and both have fundamental changes. The most important positive news for MORPHO is that Wall Street asset management giant Apollo announced plans to gradually purchase 90 million tokens over the next 48 months, which is real buying demand. Technically, MORPHO is now on the right side of a rounded bottom, with a strong trend reversal signal. But I saw this a bit late.

VVV just caught the “AI Agent era dividend.” On one hand, the project team is actively reducing supply; on the other hand, API demand is exploding, and the token economy is entering a healthy cycle. Additionally, there are signs of large whales controlling the market on the contract, with strong bullish momentum still present. No significant large-scale short positions have been seen yet, so further observation is needed.

POWER is a completely controlled by large whales now, and that seems to have ended. Tokens under strong whale control tend to rise sharply and fall just as sharply—eating a piece is like licking a knife.

Wenser (X: @wenser2010)

Profile: Crypto abstract artist, crypto enthusiast, sharp critic

Share: 1. Since the beginning of the year, crypto stock concepts have been in sync with the overall crypto market, basically done after the run-up. Except for Circle, which has nearly doubled due to earnings reports, short squeezes, and revenue expectations, and still has room to go to around 110, only some AI-transformed mining stocks show slight upward momentum. None of the others can compete. To be blunt, the crypto concept stocks, especially DAT stocks, are out of sync: when the US stock market rises, they don’t; when it falls, they fall too. When war started, I dipped slightly; as the war continued, I dropped more; when gold fell, I fell; when Bitcoin rebounded, I also fell. The only rebound was driven by Bitcoin’s bounce, which slightly lifted Bitcoin’s treasury, then continued to decline. In short, cherish life, don’t chase bottoms, only do short-term rebound trading—don’t fall for the “value investing” trap in crypto again.

2. Prediction markets: Oscar is a hot topic about to settle soon. Keep an eye on film critic weekly reports and X trends. Currently, the awards for “One Battle Again” and “Sinner” seem likely.

3. Recommending an article about AGI: it’s quite shallow but the topic is very interesting—debate between the world’s top AI godfathers: When will true AGI arrive? Which professions will be eliminated first?

Azuma (@azuma_eth)

Profile: Amateur, multi-disciplinary learner

Share: Recently very little trading. Besides focusing on finance, the only active operation was in mid-February, bottoming CRCL at 52–58, betting on AI-era stablecoins to solve payment issues. Circle is currently the only major player with a layout; USDC will have a first-mover advantage similar to USDT in crypto—simply put, jumping out of conservative profit valuation thinking to pay for dreams. But subsequent developments exceeded expectations: CRCL rebounded too fast on strong earnings, so I considered reducing some holdings.

Another slow process is farming Polymarket LP subsidies, mainly enriching interaction behaviors—less than 30% of addresses have received at least $1 in LP rewards. It’s quite manageable in practice; the core strategy is to find high-subsidy, low-competition markets and manage risks from unilateral orders being eaten.