[Red Envelope] 3.4 Tidal recession period, increasing divergence among consecutive limit-up stocks. Which targets can still be safely bought? How to buy tomorrow?

First like, then watch, daily income exceeds ten thousand. Keep pushing for a big surge. Shine all the way! [Taogu Ba]

Today’s Operations:

Trading Account: Fully in cash

Trend Account:

Clear Positions: Jinan Guoji (sold at the high point, bottomed out today, took three small profits, thanks to the main force for a good run)

Clear Positions: Yuyin Technology (sold at the high point, no significant profit today, small position taken earlier)

Open Positions: Huasheng Tiancheng (negative 2, red over 6 points today, arbitrage daily)

Open Positions: Heduan Intelligent (cost basis -1.4, doing expected spread)

Holdings: Huasheng Tiancheng, Heduan Intelligent, Shenzhou Information, Zhongsheng Medical

Market Review:

In the early session, I predicted divergence in oil and gas today, and as expected, the sector experienced strong divergence. Leading stocks resisted somewhat, but the weaker stocks sold off in bulk. The three major oil companies also ended their continuous rise. Funds are shifting from high-flying themes to defensive positions at lower levels. Next, focus on the rebound opportunities after divergence and the sustainability of defensive sectors!

After September 25, besides risk-hedging oil and gas, the only active sector was Yunnan Energy. Its red opening indicated funds still have some interest. After the market opened, it was immediately lifted by funds, hinting at a flow back into computing power and power grids. I then focused on my old buddy Huasheng, which went from a limit-down at the open to being bid up over -2 points (so I decisively bought at the first moment of the open — that fleeting opportunity).

Around 10 o’clock, I also cleared and unfollowed my old friend Jinan Guoji after seven trading days of companionship. I took the last bite at the high point. Left a little behind when leaving.

Today, I took Heduan Intelligent into a first position, added a layer to the zero-axis, and took another layer at over 2 points below the waterline to do expected spread.

Honestly, I don’t mean to boast with these words. My main thought is that as long as everyone improves their understanding—knowing how to allocate positions, understanding market directions, when to low-buy for arbitrage, and when to sell—these are standard signs of mature cognition. When the market is weak, consider splitting positions for profit and loss hedging. Even if weak stocks in your hands don’t perform well that day, strong arbitrage stocks can hedge losses, causing no impact on your account and allowing you to earn dividends. Wait for the market to warm up and for your weak stocks to rebound. Position management is crucial, especially in extremely poor market conditions. Always keep more than half a position for flexible trading.

Market Review:

1. Core Market Analysis:

The index today showed a volume-reducing sharp decline, breaking below 4100 points, entering a short-term weak adjustment pattern. Opened lower due to oil and gas sector divergence, with no significant rebound during the session, and slightly dipped at the close to create a new intraday low. All three major indices weakened collectively, with the ChiNext leading the decline. The Shanghai Composite lost the 4100 key level, and overall market sentiment continued from yesterday’s strong divergence, further weakening. Individual stocks mostly declined, profit-making was sluggish, only defensive sectors like power and agriculture showed countertrend strength. Sentiment is in the early stage of retreat after a strong divergence, with compressed limit-up heights and faster sector rotation. Focus on defense in operations.

2. Core Sector Analysis:

Yesterday’s leading oil and gas sector experienced strong divergence today as expected, with significant differentiation within the sector. Leading stocks resisted declines, but the weaker stocks diverged in bulk. Funds withdrew from oil and gas and flowed back into defensive sectors like power and agriculture. Power grid equipment and military industry also saw some fund attempts to lift prices. Shipping, coal, and precious metals, which previously followed oil and gas, led the decline today, showing a pattern of “diminishing themes, rising defense sectors.”

3. Sector Analysis:

1. Oil and Gas Sector (Strong divergence ≠ end, watch for high-low split opportunities)

Today’s divergence is profit-taking after a peak, not a logical invalidation. The external US-Iran situation is still unresolved, and the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. The core logic of rising oil and gas prices remains valid. Sector differentiation will become normal; leading stocks (Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Shui Fa Gas) still have fund support, while weaker stocks will continue to be eliminated. Focus on breakout opportunities after volume-differentiated divergence and high-low split within the sector. Avoid blindly chasing weaker stocks.

2. Power Sector (Defensive attributes recognized by funds, trend opportunities emerge)

The strength of the power sector today is not accidental. Funds attempted to position in oil and gas yesterday, and today, with oil and gas divergence, it successfully became the only main line in the market. Key advantages: trend structure intact (sector in strong oscillation), large capacity (can absorb funds fleeing oil and gas), no crowded positions (no large trapped positions after big hype), plus fundamentals like grid reform and power supply security support. Likely to become a core defensive main line, focus on trend leaders and low-level rebound targets.

3. Agricultural Seed Industry (Mainline for risk-hedging rebound, supported by trend + events)

Today, Nongfa Seed Industry hit the daily limit first, boosting the entire agricultural planting sector. It became a key risk-hedging choice after oil and gas divergence and index adjustment. Stocks combine themes of agriculture planting, food security, and state-owned enterprise reform, coinciding with the spring planting season and policy support for food security. It’s a defensive favorite for funds, with other stocks following suit, creating short-term profit opportunities.

Continued Sector Highlights:

4. Shui Fa Gas: Natural Gas + Oil — opened with a one-word limit-up, then reclosed, becoming the only 4-limit high in the oil and gas sector, with obvious fund support. Watch if it can break the limit-up streak (risk is high; today was taken by Yasheng).

4-limit: Yasheng Group: Non-ferrous metals + agriculture + low-priced stocks — decent support, depends on fund attitude. Need to see red opening tomorrow, with waterflood support.

3-limit: Intercontinental Oil & Gas: Oil — more buy orders today than yesterday, with large volume turnover. Divergence in oil and gas remains, reducing the score. Watch external news.

3-limit: Shandong Molu Oil & Gas — showed buying interest at the open but was held back. External news is key.

1-limit: Shun Na Co., Ltd.: Smart grid, IDC, nuclear power — based on sentiment, expect one-word limit-up (if confidence is confirmed, otherwise withdraw).

1-limit: Zhuolang Intelligent: Artificial intelligence — a failed breakout, but afternoon saw multiple AI stocks move strongly. Need to see tomorrow’s market to confirm new signals (Two Sessions may trigger quant strategies).

1-limit: Chuanrun Co.: Huawei computing power — a weak night, not high in position, suitable for low buying. Today took the spotlight from Huasheng.

1-limit: Farsight: Optical migration — mainly low buy, proactive.

1-limit: Hangdian Co.: Electric + optical — broke through recent resistance, mainly low buy.

1-limit: Zhineng Zikong: Artificial intelligence — active in the afternoon, monitor tomorrow’s market for confirmation (Two Sessions may trigger quant).

1-limit: Hongtai Solar: Pesticides — news-driven.

Tomorrow’s Trading Strategy:

1. If oil and gas divergence volume shrinks, there’s a chance for recovery.

2. If power sector continues strength, it could become a short-term market main line.

3. Which sectors show sustained movement after Two Sessions news?

4. Can the tech sector rebound tomorrow?

Specific early morning ideas and intraday thoughts will be updated accordingly.

My Positioning Strategy:

1. When the main line is clear, I usually buy 2 to 3 stocks within the same sector, with a maximum of 3. I also keep 1 to 2 layers for replenishment.

2. During average market conditions, I reduce to 2 stocks and keep half a position for replenishment.

3. In chaotic markets with many expected news, I split positions, e.g., 2-2-2-2 across four sectors, leaving 2 for replenishment. This is my internal hedging mode—only buy stocks I understand, which serve as short-term profit hedges or defensive positions. Not recommended for beginners; they should stay on the sidelines or hold light positions.

My Positioning Model:

1. In good markets, I generally hold 8 layers, with 2 for flexible trading. During average markets, I cut to half, and in bad times, I keep only 2 layers.

2. For stocks I believe can trend, I open around 7 layers, gradually lock in profits to 3-4 layers, and wait for main rise. For rebound stocks, I usually open 4 layers, avoid adding, and roll profits down to 2 layers.

3. For breakout stocks, I open big positions, mainly full positions for arbitrage. If you’re unfamiliar with breakout trading, don’t do this. I usually research thoroughly before entering. Beginners should start with one layer, then add gradually as they learn. My full position assumption is based on my limited capital in breakout accounts.

Thanks to the fans who supported me yesterday: @Mo Changyuan, @Xu Nuan Ge, @Erwa, and @Dadi, @Huahua Yileng, @Yongxin Shouhou, @Na Fu Po, @Xiaoxue Di.

Thanks to the fans who tipped yesterday: @Xiaosa Hai, @98 Charity, @Na Fu Po, @Sidaoshi Ji1, @Da Peng, @Yongxin Shouhou, @Xu Nuan Ge, @Erwa, @Dadi, @Jie Zhuoyao Gu, @Man Cang, and others.

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There are no standard answers in trading—only what suits your rhythm. Strictly follow your plan, avoid greed, chasing highs, or blindly following. The core stocks I add are all logically screened and validated by the market to help you avoid pitfalls and earn more!