2026-03-04 16:05:59

Reversal is impossible to reverse

Look at three data points:
First is the February Consumer Confidence Index, which exceeded expectations and showed some recovery. This may influence the February CPI rebound. Combined with recent oil price increases, the U.S. CPI decline has been significantly hindered.
Second is the U.S. M2 and M2 year-over-year growth rates. The M2 year-over-year growth rate in November 2025 declined, while from December 2025 to January 2026 it rose again. This indicates that macro liquidity is still adequate, and there is no urgent need to cut interest rates for now.
Third is the unexpectedly strong small non-farm payroll data just released tonight, which is the highest since September last year. The small non-farm payroll data is compiled by third-party research institutions.
All these data points are unfavorable for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. They may not necessarily be bearish signals, but a reversal still requires a more accommodative macro environment.

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