Over 60% of private equity firms prefer to hold heavy positions during the holiday season

Our reporter Chang Xiaoyu

As the Year of the Horse Spring Festival approaches, discussions in the private equity circle about stock holdings are heating up again. The latest survey results from Private Equity Ranking Network show that 62.16% of private equity firms prefer to hold heavy or full positions (over 80%) during the holiday, believing that although the current market has volatility, there are also structural opportunities; 16.22% choose moderate to heavy positions (60%–80%), thinking the market still needs further consolidation in the short term; 13.51% maintain moderate to light positions (40%–60%), mainly considering the uncertainty of the external environment during the long holiday and balancing offense and defense; only 8.11% plan to hold light positions (below 40%) for the holiday, mainly due to concerns about short-term market pullback risks.

Regarding investment directions, 41.18% of private equity firms are optimistic about “low valuation blue chips + technology growth,” preferring to build a “dumbbell” investment portfolio to balance safety and return flexibility; 29.41% focus on the technology growth sector, believing it remains the core theme of the market; 17.65% favor resource stocks, especially non-ferrous metals and other resources, believing their prices still have room to rise; another 11.76% pay attention to sector rotation opportunities, believing the market will show more obvious high-low switching characteristics, favoring traditional consumption, manufacturing, and high-dividend sectors.

Regarding the trend of the A-share market after the holiday, private equity firms generally hold a warm sentiment. Among them, 69.23% are optimistic, believing that the market has already undergone sufficient consolidation before the Year of the Horse Spring Festival and is expected to resume upward momentum after the holiday; 21.15% are neutral, thinking that the market is intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and may still mainly fluctuate, suggesting attention to structural opportunities; only 9.62% are cautious, believing that some sector valuations still have bubbles, and the overall market profitability may weaken after the holiday.

Fang Lei, Deputy General Manager of Beijing Xing Shi Investment Management Co., Ltd., expressed an optimistic view on the post-holiday market. In an interview with Securities Daily, he said that looking at a longer cycle, concerns about tightening global liquidity may already be partly reflected in stock prices. From a medium-term perspective, the overall risk premium of the current A-share market is at a moderate to slightly low level historically, and the valuation-driven upward momentum may weaken. At this stage, domestic corporate profits will be the key driver for the market to move higher.

Bao Xiaohui, Chairman of Shanghai Changli Asset Management Co., Ltd., told Securities Daily that he prefers to hold moderate to heavy positions during the holiday. “The core reason for this judgment is that the market has already undergone sufficient consolidation before the Spring Festival, not just superficial volatility, but digestion of floating shares. Currently, both the internal position structure and external sentiment are stabilizing, panic selling and irrational chasing are significantly reduced. Combined with historical data showing a higher probability of A-share gains after the holiday over the past 10 years, and the possibility of funds entering the market after the holiday, I am generally optimistic about the market’s future performance.”

Regarding allocation, Bao Xiaohui revealed that, given the current rapid sector rotation and obvious high-low switching in the A-share market, he prefers to shift some positions toward traditional consumption, manufacturing, and high-dividend sectors, which are less volatile, defensive, and have potential for both risk mitigation and returns, to balance the overall portfolio and better cope with possible fluctuations during the long holiday.

Jiang Yuting, head of the Snowball Fund Financial Products and Research Department, believes that the long-term logic supporting gold prices remains solid. After technical adjustments, precious metals and the overall commodities market will still return to their intrinsic investment value.

Liao Maolin, fund manager of Guangdong Zhengyuan Private Equity Fund Management Co., Ltd., said that as the investment logic of the A-share market gradually shifts from valuation-driven to profit-driven, his investment focus will further concentrate on high-quality companies with solid fundamentals, aligned with the expansion of domestic demand strategy, and building core advantages in fields related to new productive forces.