【US Stock Market】 US submarine sinks Iranian warship, NATO intercepts Iranian missiles, a cargo ship forcibly enters with two missiles, Dow Jones fluctuates (updating continuously)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the government will introduce a series of measures to stabilize oil transportation in the Persian Gulf, indicating U.S. intention to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters. This is the first attack on a surface vessel by a U.S. submarine since World War II.

Oman reported that a Malta-flagged cargo ship was hit by two missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. According to sources, the ship is the SAFEEN PRESTIGE.

Turkey announced that NATO shot down an Iranian missile fired toward Turkish airspace.

The New York Times reported that on the second day after the attack, Iranian intelligence personnel indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss ending the conflict. Citing a U.S. official familiar with the contact, they expressed doubts about whether the Trump administration or Iran was truly ready to seek a de-escalation mechanism.

Markets are watching Iran’s succession candidate’s stance and whether the U.S. and Israel will intensify bombing.

Oil prices sharply narrowed gains, with Brent crude up only 0.9% at $82.11 per barrel.

U.S. stocks opened higher, with the Dow up 171 points at 48,673, the S&P 500 up 0.5% at 6,850, and the Nasdaq up 199 points or 0.9% at 22,717.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2%, currently at 98.88; U.S. long-term bond yields steadied at 4.079%; international gold rebounded nearly 2%, currently at $5,171.

DWS reports that Iran’s crude oil production in January 2026 is projected at 3.13 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of global supply. Due to short-term supply and demand inflexibility, even slight reductions in supply can drive oil prices sharply higher. Whether prices can stabilize later depends on whether OPEC can fill the supply gap in time. However, Darwei Kung, head of commodities at the firm, noted that OPEC’s idle capacity is only about half of Iran’s total production.

He added that if airstrikes cause ships to sink in the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping route could be closed for months, causing long-term supply disruptions. Compared to airstrikes alone, ground offensives would cause even greater damage to supply. Therefore, whether the Strait’s shipping is restricted or fully blocked, it could severely impact oil supplies.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

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Market Trends:

【21:30】【Iran Crisis】Cargo ships breach the Strait of Hormuz, attacked and set on fire

【21:00】【Oil Price Trend】If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for weeks, how much will oil prices rise?

【19:00】Oil and gold prices continue to rise; Dow futures up 45 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%

【13:35】Dow futures down 225 points at 48,335; S&P futures down 41 points; Nasdaq futures down 212 points or 0.9% at 24,543.

【12:32】US Stock Analysis｜Iran Situation impacts Dow Jones, which once fell nearly 1,300 points; Analysis: Optical communications stocks to watch, and stocks to catch up on

【11:59】【Oil Price Analysis】Oil once rose another 1% to high levels; Trump administration provides insurance for oil tankers; Analysis: NY crude at $80 faces strong resistance

【11:45】【Iran Crisis】Middle East tensions shake Asia-Pacific markets; South Korea’s stock market drops over 9%, triggering circuit breakers; Japanese stocks fall over 2,000 points

【11:31】【AI+Models】OpenAI releases GPT-5.3 Instant, offering more accurate and smoother conversational experience

【10:21】【Gold Price Trend】Gold and silver sharply fall then rebound; gold in Asia surpasses $5,100; silver rebounds 3% to $85

【08:49】【Iran Crisis】Federal Reserve officials say war adds new uncertainties to monetary policy; energy prices become a key factor

【07:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Ending trade with Spain, war ends, oil prices will be lower than before

【06:51】【Iran Crisis】Islamic Revolutionary Guard: Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 3 weeks, global economy faces serious crisis (updating)

$1 and below for March 3 U.S. stock market overview====

Tuesday: Trump offers insurance guarantees + naval escort for oil tankers, Dow only down 403 points

On the fourth day of the Iran war, stock movements followed Iran’s military developments. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged by 9.5%, reaching $77.98; the Dow fell by 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; the S&P 500 dropped 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq declined 2.7%, low at 22,124.

See the closing of U.S. stocks:

▼Click image to enlarge

Trump announced that he would provide insurance guarantees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which could restore oil transportation and stabilize prices. U.S. stocks narrowed losses, with the Dow closing down only 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,501; S&P down 0.9% at 6,816; Nasdaq down 1% at 22,516.

Oil prices rose 5% at the close, with NY crude at $74.65 and Brent crude at $81.72.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade passing through the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also said that if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

“Regardless, the U.S. will ensure that energy flows freely to the world. The U.S. economy and military strength are the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The dollar index briefly rose 1.3%, then settled at a 0.7% gain, at 99.04. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4%. Gold prices remain under pressure, down 4.3%, at $5,094.87; silver down 8%, at $82.23.

Manulife believes that recent rises in global bond yields may reflect market concerns about inflation returning and worries about future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict lasts more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Pictet Wealth Management in Switzerland said that in the very short term, the Iran war will negatively impact stocks due to geopolitical uncertainty and soaring oil prices. But history shows such negative effects are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm noted that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could fall back to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact would be relatively limited. However, in the short term, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance. The Federal Reserve might delay future rate cuts, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the U.S.’s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the U.S. as more resilient than Asian countries heavily dependent on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating. For details, see: Next page

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【13:27】Dow futures down 336 points at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9% at 24,809.

【11:41】【Iran Crisis】Franklin D. Roosevelt’s CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, the conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Oil rose another 1% early; analysis: the conflict is expected not to last long; NY crude at $70-75, gold to retreat after easing

【10:50】【AI+Competition】OpenAI users launch boycott; Anthropic Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becomes top app in the US Apple App Store

【10:46】【AI+Defense】Sam Altman: Adding agreement clauses with the Department of Defense to ensure AI is not used for monitoring U.S. citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence units

【10:36】【U.S. Tariffs】U.S. Court of Appeals rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can be processed quickly

【10:10】【AI Frontline】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly planning to raise $17.5 billion to pay off debt

【09:02】【Iran Crisis】Liu: Will push a plan to curb oil price surges; Trump administration reportedly has no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves

【08:39】【Fed Rate Cuts】Yellen: Iran crisis impacts U.S. economy and inflation; energy prices are a key factor

【08:19】【U.S. Economy】JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns inflation could be a “party pooper” for the U.S. economy after the “cockroach theory”

【08:08】【AI+NVIDIA Chips】U.S. considers restricting NVIDIA H200 chips, limit of 75,000 units per Chinese company

【07:25】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Four main targets in Iran; U.S. Department of Defense reports firing tens of thousands of missiles over two days, including ground-launched missiles from the U.S. (updating)

$1 and below for March 2 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump provides insurance guarantees + naval escort for oil tankers, Dow only down 521 points

On the fourth day of the Iran conflict, stock movements followed military developments. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices surged by 9.5%, reaching $77.98; the Dow fell by 521 points or 1.1%, low at 48,977; S&P 500 down 0.4%, at 6,878; Nasdaq declined 0.9%, at 22,668.

See the closing of U.S. stocks:

▼Click image to enlarge

Trump announced that he would provide insurance guarantees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which could restore oil transportation and stabilize prices. U.S. stocks narrowed losses, with the Dow closing down only 521 points or 1.1%, at 48,977; S&P down 0.4% at 6,878; Nasdaq down 0.9% at 22,668.

Oil prices surged 5% at the close, with NY crude at $74.65 and Brent crude at $81.72.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade passing through the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also said that if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

“Regardless, the U.S. will ensure that energy flows freely to the world. The U.S. economy and military strength are the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The dollar index briefly rose 1.3%, then settled at a 0.7% gain, at 99.04. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4%. Gold prices remain under pressure, down 4.3%, at $5,094.87; silver down 8%, at $82.23.

Manulife believes that recent rises in global bond yields may reflect market concerns about inflation returning and worries about future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict lasts more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Pictet Wealth Management in Switzerland said that in the very short term, the Iran war will negatively impact stocks due to geopolitical uncertainty and soaring oil prices. But history shows such negative effects are usually short-lived. Investors are advised to prioritize tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

The firm noted that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could fall back to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact would be relatively limited. However, in the short term, central banks may adopt a more cautious stance. The Federal Reserve might delay future rate cuts, depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the U.S.’s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets may see the U.S. as more resilient than Asian countries heavily dependent on oil imports.