【US Stock Market】 US submarine sinks Iranian warship, NATO intercepts Iranian missiles, a cargo ship forcibly enters with two missiles, Dow Jones fluctuates (updating continuously)

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen stated that the government will introduce a series of measures to stabilize oil transportation in the Persian Gulf, indicating U.S. intention to intervene in the Strait of Hormuz, which has been blocked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that a U.S. submarine sank an Iranian warship in international waters. This is the first attack on a surface vessel by a U.S. submarine since World War II.

Oman reported that a Malta-flagged cargo ship was hit by two missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. According to sources, the ship is the SAFEEN PRESTIGE.

Turkey announced that NATO shot down an Iranian missile fired toward Turkish airspace.

The New York Times reported that on the second day after the attack, Iranian intelligence personnel indirectly contacted the CIA to discuss conditions for ending the conflict. Citing American officials familiar with the contact, they expressed skepticism about whether the Trump administration or Iran was truly ready to seek a de-escalation mechanism.

Market focus is on Iran’s successor candidate’s stance and whether the U.S. and Israel will intensify bombing.

Oil prices sharply narrowed gains, with Brent crude up only 0.9% at $82.11 per barrel.

U.S. stocks opened higher, with the Dow rising 171 points to 48,673; the S&P 500 up 0.5% at 6,850; and the Nasdaq up 199 points or 0.9% at 22,717.

The U.S. dollar index fell 0.2% to 98.88; U.S. long-term bond yields steadied at 4.079%; international gold rebounded nearly 2%, currently at $5,171.

DWS noted that Iran’s crude oil production in January 2026 is projected at 3.13 million barrels per day, accounting for about 4% of global supply. Due to short-term supply and demand inflexibility, even slight reductions in supply can drive oil prices sharply higher. Whether prices can stabilize later depends on OPEC’s ability to fill the supply gap in time. However, Darwei Kung, head of commodities at the firm, said, “OPEC’s idle capacity is currently only about half of Iran’s total production.”

He added that if airstrikes cause ships to sink in the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane could be closed for months, causing long-term supply disruptions. Compared to airstrikes alone, ground offensives would cause even greater damage to supply. Therefore, whether the Strait’s shipping is restricted or fully blocked, it could severely impact oil supply.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【21:30】【Iran Crisis】A cargo ship forcibly enters the Strait of Hormuz, caught fire after attack

【21:00】【Oil Price Trend】If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for weeks, how much will oil prices rise?

【19:00】Oil and gold prices continue to rise; Dow futures up 45 points, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%

【13:35】Dow futures down 225 points at 48,335; S&P futures down 41 points; Nasdaq futures down 212 points or 0.9% at 24,543.

【12:32】US Stock Analysis｜Iran Situation Impacted Dow Jones, nearly down 1,300 points; Analysis: Optical communication stocks to watch, lagging stocks to consider

【11:59】【Oil Price Analysis】Oil once rose another 1% to hover at high levels; Trump administration providing insurance for oil tankers; Analysis: NY crude at $80 resistance strong

【11:45】【Iran Crisis】Middle East tensions shake Asia-Pacific markets; South Korea’s stock market drops over 9%, triggering circuit breakers; Japanese stocks fall over 2,000 points

【11:31】【AI+Models】OpenAI releases GPT-5.3 Instant, more accurate and smoother conversational experience

【10:21】【Gold Price Trend】Gold and silver sharply fell then rebounded; gold in Asia surpasses $5,100; silver rebounds 3% to $85

【08:49】【Iran Crisis】Federal Reserve officials say war adds new uncertainty to monetary policy; energy prices become key

【07:23】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Ending trade with Spain, war ends, oil prices will be lower than before

【06:51】【Iran Crisis】Islamic Revolutionary Guard: Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for 3 weeks, global economy faces serious crisis (updating)

$1 and below for March 3 U.S. stock market overview====

Tuesday: Trump offers insurance guarantees + naval escort for oil tankers; Dow only down 403 points

Fourth day of Iran war, stock market moves follow Iran’s situation; due to Strait of Hormuz blockade, oil surged 9.5%, reaching $77.98; Dow fell as much as 1,277 points or 2.6%, low at 47,626; S&P dropped 2.5%, low at 6,710; Nasdaq fell 2.7%, low at 22,124.

See U.S. stock market close:

▼Click image to enlarge

+10

+9

Trump announced that he has provided insurance guarantees for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which could restore oil transportation and stabilize prices. U.S. stocks narrowed losses, with the Dow closing down only 403 points or 0.8%, at 48,501; S&P down 0.9% at 6,816; Nasdaq down 1% at 22,516.

Oil prices rose 5% at the close, with NY crude at $74.65 and Brent crude at $81.72.

Trump posted on Truth Social that he has ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide political risk insurance and guarantees at very reasonable prices for all maritime trade in the Gulf region, especially energy shipments. This service will be available to all shipping companies.

He also said that if necessary, the U.S. Navy will begin escorting oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

“Regardless, the U.S. will ensure that energy flows freely to the world. America’s economic and military strength is the strongest on Earth—more actions are coming.”

The dollar index rose once by 1.3%, then settled to a 0.7% gain at 99.04. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 4%. Gold prices held steady, down 4.3% at $5,094.87; silver fell 8% to $82.23.

Manulife noted that recent rises in global bond yields may reflect market concerns about a resurgence of inflation and worries over future central bank decisions. However, if the conflict lasts more than a few weeks, its impact on markets and the economy could become more significant.

Pictet Wealth Management said that in the very short term, the Iran war will negatively impact stocks due to geopolitical uncertainty and soaring oil prices. But history shows such negative effects are usually short-lived. Investors should continue prioritizing tangible assets—including gold, metals, and other commodities.

They indicated that if the conflict remains short-term, oil prices could return to pre-crisis levels, and the overall macroeconomic impact would be relatively limited. However, central banks might adopt a more cautious stance in the short term. The Fed may delay future rate cuts depending on the duration and severity of the conflict. As long as the scope of the conflict remains limited, the dollar could strengthen temporarily, given the U.S.’s relative energy independence. If new oil shocks occur, markets might see the U.S. as more resilient than Asian countries heavily dependent on oil imports.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【13:27】Dow futures down 336 points at 48,609; S&P futures down 49 points at 6,839; Nasdaq futures down 215 points or 0.9% at 24,809.

【11:41】【Iran Crisis】Franklin D. Roosevelt CEO: As long as other Middle Eastern countries do not retaliate, conflict is unlikely to last more than five weeks.

【11:19】【Iran Crisis】Oil once rose another 1% early; analysis: fighting unlikely to last long; NY crude at $70-75, gold likely to retreat after easing of conflict

【10:50】【AI+Competition】OpenAI users launch boycott; Anthropic Claude surpasses ChatGPT, becomes top app on U.S. Apple App Store

【10:46】【AI+Defense】Sam Altman: Adding clauses with the Department of Defense; clarifying AI cannot be used for surveillance of U.S. citizens; OpenAI services will not be used by defense intelligence units

【10:36】【U.S. Tariffs】U.S. appeals court rejects government’s request to delay tariff refunds; refunds can proceed quickly

【10:10】【AI Frontline】Elon Musk’s X and xAI reportedly plan to raise $17.5 billion to pay off debts

【09:02】【Iran Crisis】Liu: Will push plans to curb oil price surges; Trump administration reportedly has no plans to use strategic petroleum reserves for now

【08:39】【Fed Rate Cuts】Yellen: Iran crisis impacts U.S. economy and inflation; likely to make Fed more cautious

【08:19】【U.S. Economy】JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warns inflation could be a “party pooper” for the U.S. economy after “cockroach theory”

【08:08】【AI+NVIDIA Chips】U.S. considers purchase limits on NVIDIA H200 chips; cap at 75,000 units per Chinese company

【07:25】【Iran Crisis】Trump: Four main targets for Iran; U.S. Department of Defense: tens of thousands of missiles fired in two days, including ground-launched missiles from the U.S. (updating)

$1 and below for March 2 U.S. stock market overview====

Monday: Trump accelerates war progress; Nasdaq up 0.4%; Anthropic “crashes,” NVIDIA jumps 3%

Due to many users switching from OpenAI to Anthropic, Anthropic experienced a crash. Since Anthropic is mainly paid service, the crash reflects strong growth in paying users, potentially boosting revenue, but also indicates insufficient computing power. Nvidia (US: NVDA) surged 3%, closing at $182.48, boosting the Nasdaq.

See U.S. stock market close:

▼Click image to enlarge

+10

+9

Trump held a press conference, stating that the initial estimate for the war is 4 to 5 weeks, but the current progress is far ahead of schedule. For example, they initially estimated it would take 4 weeks to dismantle Iran’s military leadership, but in reality, the U.S. achieved this in about an hour. Overall progress has exceeded expectations. However, he did not set a time limit, saying, “No matter how long it takes, that’s fine. Whatever is needed, we will do it.”

Israel and the U.S. continue bombing. Due to ongoing war, European and Middle Eastern countries are mediating a ceasefire, reducing war risk premiums. The U.S. dollar index rose 1%, at 98.55; gold surged 2.7%, reaching a high of $5,419.11, then settled at $5,325. Gold spot prices fell sharply by 7.7%, to $86.54. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high at 4.03%.

Under the shadow of war, the Dow once fell 599 points to a low of 48,377, but closed down only 73 points at 48,904; the S&P gained 2 points to 6,881; Nasdaq rose 0.4% to 22,748.

Oil prices surged, Brent crude up 13% at one point to $82.37, closing at $78.12, up 7.2%; NY crude rose 12.4% to $75.33, closing at $71.33, up 6.4%.

Major stocks generally declined amid global turbulence, but Palantir (US: PLTR) surged 5.8% as its Ontology technology integrates satellite imagery, communication monitoring records, and other information, greatly improving decision-making efficiency amid US-Iran conflict.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said the timing of military actions against Tehran will be decided by President Trump.

Invesco’s Benjamin Jones expects that stock markets will decline in the short term after the conflict, but the trend depends on how the situation develops. Most impacts will be reflected through rising oil prices. Cyclical and consumer sectors may be hit hardest, while defense, energy giants, and gold mining stocks are expected to benefit from geopolitical tensions.

Key data this week will focus on February unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls.

Hong Kong stocks and ADR markets are continuously updating; see the next page for details.

▼Click image to enlarge

Market Trends:

【22:30】Iran crisis drags stocks down; Dow down 495 points; Nasdaq down 1.3%; Palantir up 3% against the trend

【18:10】Iran crisis causes Dow futures to fall 570 points; Nasdaq futures down 1.3%; oil once up 10%; gold above $5,400

【15:44】NY crude up 8.6% to $72.79; Brent crude down 9.1% to $79.49

【15:28】Dow futures down 640 points at 48,360; S&P futures down 94 points at 6,794; Nasdaq futures down 438 points or 1.8% at 24,566

【12:31】Dow futures down 369 points at 48,631; S&P futures down 50 points at 6,838; Nasdaq futures down 206 points or 0.8% at 24,798

【11:52】【Iran Crisis】Jungli Henderson Investment: Current oil prices reflect a “limited scale, short duration” conflict scenario

【11:48】【Iran Crisis】UAE stock market closed for two days; UAE government announces full coverage of stranded travelers’ expenses

【11:25】【Iran Crisis】Middle East conflict disrupts energy markets; economists warn of increased global economic risks; the most affected countries…

【10:50】【Iran Crisis】If the Strait of Hormuz closes for a month, Goldman Sachs warns European natural gas prices could surge 130%, crude oil could rise by $15

【10:09】【Major Bank Views】UBS downgrades U.S. stocks to “in line with the market” for six reasons; remains optimistic on emerging markets, selects four key countries

【08:06】【Oil Price Trend】Iran crisis causes oil prices to soar; Brent up over 8%; Strait of Hormuz halt

【07:50】【Gold Price Trend】Gold up nearly 2%, back above $5,300; silver up over 2%, driven by Middle East war risk aversion

【07:30】【Iran Crisis】Bloomberg estimates oil could rise 49%; Trump: Qasem Soleimani and three Americans dead, fighting continues until goals are achieved (updating)

【07:30】【Global Weekly Preview】Focus on geopolitical situation and U.S. employment data; February unemployment rate expected to stay at 4.3%

【07:30】U.S. stocks fell last Friday. Major financial stocks plunged, with American Express down 8%, Goldman Sachs down 7%, dragging Dow down 521 points to 48,977; S&P down 0.4% at 6,878; AI stocks under pressure, NVIDIA (US: NVDA) down 4%, dragging Nasdaq down 0.9% to 22,668.

See U.S. stock market close:

▼Click image to enlarge

+10

+9

Last week’s U.S. stock activity, details at: 【U.S. Market Close】Block layoffs due to AI, financial stocks plunge; Dow down 521 points