Natural gas prices surge by 75%, and the EU may reconsider the ban on Russian natural gas imports

According to CCTV News, Norwegian Energy Minister Trine Skei Grande stated at a conference in Oslo on the 3rd that the European Union has consistently expressed its desire to reduce dependence on Russian oil and natural gas, but recent events over the past three or four days have made the situation more difficult. Given the current geopolitical situation, she believes relevant discussions will resume.

It is understood that Grande’s statement suggests that incidents such as the U.S. and Israel launching strikes on Iran, and Iran’s retaliatory actions, could lead the EU to restart discussions on banning Russian natural gas imports. It is also reported that the situation in the Middle East has affected gas exports from the Gulf region, with European natural gas prices soaring 75% this week.

According to previous reports from Xinhua News Agency, on January 26th this year, the 27 EU member states officially adopted regulations to gradually ban imports of pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia.

Cyprus, the rotating EU presidency, and Minister of Energy, Commerce, and Industry Michael Damiános stated in a press release that the regulation aims to reduce dependence on Russian natural gas and is an important step toward establishing an autonomous energy alliance within the EU.

Under this regulation, the EU will fully ban imports of pipeline natural gas and LNG from Russia. The ban will take effect six weeks after the regulation comes into force, with existing contracts subject to transitional arrangements. The announcement indicates that the full ban on LNG imports from Russia will take effect in early 2027, and the full ban on pipeline natural gas will be implemented in fall 2027.

The regulation also stipulates that, in the event of an emergency declaration by the EU and when one or more member states face serious supply threats, the European Commission can suspend the import ban for up to four weeks. By March 1, 2026, member states must develop national plans to diversify natural gas supplies.

The announcement states that the regulation will take effect the day after its publication in the Official Journal of the European Union. The European Commission also plans to propose legislation to gradually cease importing Russian oil by the end of 2027.

In recent years, EU imports of Russian natural gas and oil have significantly decreased. The announcement shows that by 2025, Russian oil will account for less than 3% of EU oil imports, but Russian natural gas still makes up about 13% of total EU imports, worth over 15 billion euros.

Additionally, according to Cailian News, in 2025, 57% of the EU’s LNG supply will come from the United States.

Previously, EU Competition Commissioner Margrethe Vestager warned that the EU should be cautious about over-reliance on U.S. natural gas.

In a trade agreement reached last year between the U.S. and EU, there is a clause for the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy by 2028. According to the latest estimates from the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, if the EU fulfills all its LNG supply agreements with the U.S., up to 80% of its LNG imports could come from the U.S. by 2030.

Source: Daily Economic News

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