Review of March 4th

The following operations are solely for my personal record-keeping. They carry significant risks; do not follow the trend.

Today’s Operations

Morning Session

Red sell-off of Blue Flame Holdings

Reduced positions in Tongyuan Petroleum by 30%, added 10% underwater for T+0 trading, reaching 30% total position

Re-entered Shandong Molong with 30%

No operations in the afternoon

Current Holdings

30% Tongyuan Petroleum

30% Shandong Molong

40% Cash

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Market Sentiment

Global stock indices plummeted. After a low open, the Shanghai Composite fluctuated throughout the day with decreasing volume, forming a green doji star. Total market turnover was 2.39 trillion yuan, with significantly reduced trading volume, indicating strong risk aversion.

Tomorrow’s focus: whether the stock index can stabilize. If it drops again, it will test support around 4020.

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Data Summary

1. Limit-up stocks: 44, significantly lower than yesterday’s 76.
   Trend: 61-75-87-76-44, decreasing to low levels.

2. Consecutive limit-up days: 9-10-20-36-6, sharply declining to zero.

3. Limit-down stocks: 11, high but decreasing compared to yesterday’s 53.
   Trend: 3-0-8-53-11, diverging from overall market trend.

4. Limit-up board sealing rate: 70%, moderate.

Trend: 73%-83%-79%-76%-70%

5. Number of advancing and declining stocks: 1745 vs. 3640, with a slight rebound in advancing stocks.

Trend: 2485-3271-1142-643-1745

6. Market height: 6-7-3-3-4, increasing in space.

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Market Main Theme: Middle East War Concept

Sub-themes: Electric Power, Computing Power

Intraday Hotspots: Electric Power, Computing Power, Agriculture Planting

Leading Stocks in Continuous Limit-ups: None

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Market Nodes:

Three-Board: High-volume collective breakout nodes

First Limit-up: Main theme divergence + emotional double bottom nodes

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Today’s Break in Continuous Limit-up and Reversal:

Farsight (Optical Fiber)

Yesterday’s Break in Limit-up and Reversal:

Beijing Keli (Electric Power Equipment, small positive)

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Sentiment Cycle Analysis

Major Cycle Position: New Cycle (Risk Aversion Cycle)

Minor Cycle Position: Emotional double bottom day

Loss Effect: Significant

Cycle Height: 7

Breakout Leader: Yunnan Energy Holdings (7)

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Market Observation

Point 1: Major Theme Divergence

In the morning, the oil and gas sector’s bidding was below expectations, showing a “core” button trend at open. The specific reason for divergence remains unclear.

Fundamentally, the Middle East conflict continues to escalate. Latest news: Iran’s missile hits USS Zeus Destroyer, Dubai US consulate bombed, B52 drops 32 tons of bombs over Tehran, Iraq’s largest oil field and the world’s second-largest, the Hormuz Strait, are blocked, oil storage tanks are full and production halted, Iran continues attacks on UAE ports (the only port bypassing the Strait blockade). Despite Trump’s verbal assurances about escorting, the dangerous regional situation makes such actions difficult. Overall, the conflict persists, with ongoing missile and drone attacks, maintaining high intensity.

In the stock market, sectors driven by major news, like oil and gas, are not sufficiently elevated. Current heights do not match the severity of the incident. Crude oil futures continue to rise, but A-shares show divergence; after capital reacts, a correction is inevitable.

In the morning, military stocks rose, led by drones. Post-market, agriculture planting stocks gained, with news of Iran banning grain exports. During the early oil and gas divergence, the rally was related to war-related sectors, traditional safe-haven themes, indicating funds had no clear destination.

Therefore, the oil and gas sector’s rally is not over; today’s divergence was an over-expected event.

Point 2: No second limit-up

A rare occurrence today: a full failure of first and second limit-ups. Only two explanations:

First, funds deliberately cut from oil and gas sectors, preparing for a conference concept. There was also a trial of this during the day; tomorrow’s first attempt may see initial fund action.

Second, global stock indices crash, funds in defensive mode, risk aversion high, unwilling to follow through.

Regardless of the reason, funds are seeking themes outside the Middle East conflict, which is obvious. But no standout theme or news stimulus to counter the conflict has appeared; currently, it’s just a trial of market reaction.

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Personal Holdings

Sold Holdings:

Blue Flame Holdings

Due to below-expectations bidding and sector divergence, with strong leading stocks present, sold the position.

Bought and T+0 trading:

Tongyuan Petroleum

Reduced position for the same reason as Blue Flame, but considering Tongyuan’s recognition and oil logic not materializing, not fully cleared. Subsequently, Tongyuan experienced a sharp drop, exceeding expectations. Judged as a good low-entry point, bought back 10%.

Shandong Molong

Oil sector heights not confirmed, and it was the first divergence. It has a Hong Kong stock as an anchor, tripling in two days. Even if it only doubles, it’s reasonable. On the market, only it and Intercontinental Oil & Gas remain active, potential leaders. After a limit-up failure, it rebounded.

Summary

Today’s confidence in T+0 trading and buying leading stocks during sector divergence was mainly based on the fundamental logic and cycle of the sector, predicting the oil and gas sector’s first divergence was incomplete. Selling during divergence was not strong enough; buying active stocks was strategic.

From a chip perspective, funds betting on the Middle East war are considerable. This position needs a major divergence to shake out previous positions.

Note: For compliance, future reviews will not include charts.

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Tomorrow’s Trading Plan

1. Oil & Gas Sector

Three stocks:

Intercontinental Oil & Gas, Shandong Molong, Tongyuan Petroleum

Observe whether a large single order triggers a one-word surge in the first and second boards, and monitor premium on limit-down stocks.

1. Intercontinental Oil & Gas

Based on market size and K-line shape, the probability of trend reversal is high. It’s defined as a potential trend-crossing leader in this cycle, mainly for low buying.

2. Shandong Molong

Hong Kong stock tripled in two days, likely to continue limit-up. It’s defined as a current limit-up leader. If Hong Kong stocks continue to fall at open tomorrow, monitor whether the decline persists. If it stabilizes, previous gains remain valid. Technical: a 5+ point gap-up at open is expected, with a weak-to-strong transition on intraday charts.

3. Tongyuan Petroleum

A second-board trend with elasticity. Tomorrow, focus on intercontinental, Molong, and overall sector bidding. Watch for one-word limit-down stocks and whether limit-up stocks with red openings appear. Technical: avoid opening gaps over 3 points; monitor sector inflow in real-time.

2. Breakout Leader:

Yunnan Energy Holdings

Currently showing signs of trend crossing from a breakout leader. Power sector is fermenting, and computing power has conference expectations, supporting trend crossing. Mainly for low entry.

3. One-Plus-Two

Based on the premise of breakout leader transitioning to trend crossing, expect a rebound in power and computing sectors.

1. Computing Power

Shun Na Shares, Beautiful Ecology

2. Electric Power

Ji Cheng Electronics, Yin Xing Energy

Follow-up Requirements

Both sectors are intraday hotspots today. Operations should focus on Yunnan Energy Holdings. Stocks should open red and actively rise. Watch for new large orders in non-computing and non-electric power stocks to avoid sector crowding.

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Disclaimer

The above stocks are not recommendations; for review purposes only. Buy and sell decisions are personal; risks are your own.

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