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A historian predicts Trump’s victory and Iran war, saying the United States may lose
Analysts in Washington are reconsidering the warnings of historian Bakin Jiang Xiukin, who predicted Trump’s victory and the escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran.
He claimed in May 2024 that the second Trump administration would engage in a military conflict with Tehran and ultimately lose.
Many did not take this prediction seriously at the time; however, two major factors later emerged that supported the historian’s suggestion.
Trump was elected in 2024, and tensions between the two countries escalated as Iran clashed with the United States in several brief confrontations, one of which was the 12-day war in 2025.