#当前行情抄底还是观望？

Bottom fishing? I've already finished mine!

Last night, global markets experienced a brutal slaughter by bears, with gold, crude oil, Bitcoin, and stocks all plunging wildly, as if a financial crisis was imminent. On-chain whale爆仓s of Bitcoin kept happening, and originally calm spot believers were all shouting that the sky was falling. Facing all this, I quietly opened my computer, went all-in with all my funds, bought some GT, Doge, ETH, then closed my laptop and decided to wait and see in a week. A little self-praise here—perhaps this is what Buffett meant by “be greedy when others are fearful”😎😎.

👉 I believe the market will not decline further in the short term, so the best bottom-fishing opportunity was this morning. If you missed it, now is also a good time, for three reasons:

1. From the market and technical indicators:

Bitcoin, after a continuous decline, now shows increased volume on the daily chart yesterday. On one hand, this indicates huge forced liquidation amounts; on the other, it reflects strong support at the bottom. Meanwhile, the daily deviation from the MA5 is significant, indicating a rebound demand. On the weekly chart, the RSI is currently at 29.21, triggering a weekly oversold condition for the first time since June 2022. Historically, such conditions often accompany a phase rebound, and the lower band of the weekly Bollinger Bands is around 69,000. It has now been significantly broken through, indicating strong rebound momentum.

2. From the perspective of decline magnitude and major cycle support:

Bitcoin’s current low of around 59,900 has wiped out all the gains since Trump took office. The 60,000+ level, which was the starting point of the last bull market’s five-wave rally, is also somewhat a top-bottom turning point. Historical experience shows that these levels often serve as support for the market.

3. From Bitcoin’s long-term trend:

Looking back at history, previous bear markets also had their “darkest moments.” When Bitcoin plunged 83% to $3,122 in 2018 or was halved to $4,800 during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the market was filled with “doomsday” panic. But historical data reveals a cruel yet firm truth: every deep correction is a buildup phase for long-term growth, and Bitcoin repeatedly breaks new highs. Since Bitcoin’s long-term outlook is bullish, how could buying spot during such a major correction be wrong?

🔍 So, what exactly caused the simultaneous decline of gold, silver, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies? I believe there are three points:

1. The collapse of gold and silver markets

As mentioned in previous articles, this bull market in gold and silver has mobilized at least trillions of dollars, not including the increased holdings of gold by various central banks. It can be said that this gold and silver bull market has gone beyond traditional speculative markets and has impacted the security of the global financial system. Moreover, the collapse of this bull market also indirectly proves that gold is no longer just a safe-haven asset but has also become a risk asset to some extent. Its collapse naturally drags down US stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets.

2. Possible shift in US monetary policy leading to global liquidity shortage

The new Federal Reserve Chair’s hawkish stance has raised concerns in the market. The pace of rate cuts in the US may slow down, and with the Bank of Japan raising interest rates, the global liquidity outlook is tightening. Funds will naturally flow out of risk assets and into more stable assets.

3. Geopolitical uncertainties

The Iran situation is currently the biggest geopolitical event. A few days ago, US-Iran nuclear talks resumed, and Trump expressed hope to resolve Iran issues through negotiations, causing gold, silver, and oil to plummet. Today, reports emerged that the US has ordered an emergency evacuation of Iranian residents, escalating tensions again. Gold and silver rebounded sharply, and the panic in financial markets eased somewhat, also triggering a rapid rebound in other risk assets.

📊 My recent trading review—regarding Bitcoin and ETH, I mainly made three trades recently:

✅ Trade 1: Short Bitcoin

Entry point: 77,981

Exit point: 70,100

Leverage: 50x

Return: 350%

✅ Trade 2: Attempted bottom fishing ETH

Entry point: 2,067

Exit point: 2,057 (stop loss)

Leverage: 50x

Return: -28%

✅ Trade 3: Spot bottom fishing GT, ETH, DOGE, HYPE

Status: Holding

Holding period: Long-term

Capital utilization: 100%

In the spot bottom-fishing operation, I invested all my previous short gains and principal, hoping for a “big miracle”😀😀. What do you think? Have you bottom-fished? Feel free to leave a comment. Wishing everyone daily prosperity!