Matrixport: Influenced by capital structure and participation, Bitcoin is expected to turn bullish in the short term

Mars Finance reports that Matrixport’s weekly review indicates that Bitcoin quickly retraced to reach a key downside target zone, but the market remains caught between “improving macro environment” and “insufficient technical correction.” Growth indicators are rebounding, fiscal stimulus is strengthening, and the US dollar is weakening, which should support risk assets; however, Bitcoin has yet to provide a clear and sustainable reversal confirmation. On the technical side, the key trend levels previously used to distinguish between “short-term rebound” and “structural decline” have been broken and lost, and earlier support zones have turned into resistance above. Therefore, recent rebounds are more like corrective recoveries after a decline rather than a shift in trend or structure. The position structure further amplifies upward pressure: a large amount of capital is entering at higher price levels, with limited reduction during the pullback. In the absence of convincing new narratives or catalysts, this existing capital is more likely to turn into supply pressure above rather than effective support. From a cyclical perspective, it appears to be in the late stage of the cycle near the top. Historically, similar phases, even with macro improvements, do not necessarily see immediate price stabilization; they often experience a decline or weak consolidation, with the focus shifting further downward. The reasons stem from capital structure and participation levels: with crowded chips and waning participation, funds entering at high levels tend to take profits and reduce risk during rebounds, making selling pressure easier to outweigh new buying, and macro positive factors are less likely to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term.