【SOL 1H Technical Analysis | Oscillating Above Key Support Levels, Focus on Direction Choice】

Market Review and Qualitative Analysis
SOL continues to consolidate above the previous key support zone on the 1-hour timeframe. The price fluctuates narrowly around $127, remaining below all short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating a generally bearish structure. However, the downward momentum has significantly weakened compared to the previous accelerated decline. Both bulls and bears are stalemated within the core range of $124.59-$130.40, awaiting a new catalyst to break the deadlock.

Multi-dimensional Technical Indicator Interpretation

1. Moving Average System and Structure: The moving averages remain in a bearish alignment, with MA5 (127.13) closely hugging the price, and MA10 (129.04) forming a near-term resistance. The higher MAs (MA20 at 133.29 and MA30 at 136.74) create a stronger resistance zone. The current MA system shows no clear signs of flattening, indicating the bearish trend has not yet reversed, but the flattening of MA5 suggests short-term selling pressure is easing.
2. Key Price Level Analysis:
· Lower Support: $124.59 is an absolute critical level frequently mentioned recently and is a clearly marked previous low on the chart. This level serves as the last line of defense for the bulls; its hold or failure will directly determine whether SOL resumes decline or forms a bottom.
· Upper Resistance and Central Zone: $129.04 (MA10) marks the short-term strength/weakness boundary. A breakout above this level could test the upper boundary of the $130.40-$131.00 range. A genuine structural reversal requires the price to stabilize above $133.30 (MA20).
3. Momentum Indicator Analysis:
· MACD: Both lines are running deep below the zero axis, but the DIF line shows a slight turn-up, and the histogram (MACD) green bars have shortened to -0.46, indicating the bearish momentum is gradually diminishing, and the market is in a declining momentum recession phase.
· RSI: At 28.34, it is in a weak zone, approaching but not entering extreme oversold territory. It shows a potential slight bullish divergence with the price, further confirming the weakening downward momentum.

Operational Strategy and Level References

· Range Trading Approach: Within the $124.60-$130.40 range, a high sell and low buy strategy can be adopted. Near the lower boundary at $125.00-$125.50, consider light long positions with a stop-loss below $124.30, targeting $128.00-$129.00. Near the upper boundary at $129.50-$130.00, consider light short positions with a stop-loss above $130.60, targeting $127.00-$126.00.
· Breakout Follow-up Strategy:
· Upward Breakout: If the price breaks above $130.40 with volume and stabilizes, the short-term structure turns strong. Consider light long positions aiming for $132.00-$133.30.
· Downward Break: If the price effectively breaks below $124.59 (with the 1-hour candle closing below), a further decline may be triggered. Avoid long positions and consider shorting on rebounds or staying on the sidelines.
· Trend Strategy: Until the price clearly breaks out of the current consolidation zone, maintain a range-bound mindset and avoid chasing highs or lows.

Risk Warning
The above analysis is based solely on personal views of the current chart. Market volatility is high, and strategies may quickly become invalid. Please ensure proper position management, set stop-losses, and trade at your own risk.

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