January 21 ETH Technical Analysis Strategy

- Core conclusion: Daily chart is bearish, short-term weak oscillation; prioritize shorting on rebounds, and after support stabilizes, try light long positions with strict position control.
- Current price: $2,985 (24h range $2,920-$3,205, down -6.72%).

Key Levels and Indicators

- Daily: Price broke below EMA20 ($3,140) and the 100-day moving average, RSI at 40.12 indicating neutral to weak momentum, MACD dead cross continues to expand, bearish momentum dominates.
- 12h: Retraced to the previous upward 0.618 Fibonacci level at $2,925, combined with weekly moving averages support, indicating a short-term correction is needed.
- 4h: Closed with a bullish reversal candle, KDJ indicator shows a golden cross at low levels, small timeframes show signs of rebound, but resistance above is strong.

Support and Resistance (Key Levels)

- Support: $2,925 (strong, 0.618 retracement + moving average resonance), $2,810 (strong, previous dense trading platform).
- Resistance: $3,140 (strong, EMA20 resistance), $3,200 (strong, previous high resistance).

Trading Strategies (Actionable)

- Shorting strategy: On rebound to $3,120-$3,140, gradually build short positions, stop loss at $3,195, first target $2,980-$2,925, if broken, hold for $2,810.
- Long strategy: Stabilize in the $2,925-$2,940 range (4h bullish close and volume breakout above $2,950), try light long positions, stop loss at $2,890, target $3,050-$3,080, exit immediately if encountering resistance.
- Position and risk management: Total position not exceeding 30%, individual trade stop loss within 2%, strictly avoid chasing highs or panic selling.

Market Evolution Scenarios

- Optimistic: Volume supports above $3,140, regain $3,150-$3,200 range for consolidation, with potential to test $3,300.
- Neutral: Weak oscillation within $2,925-$3,140, waiting for direction, increasing bullish and bearish battles.
- Pessimistic: Break below $2,925 with volume, further decline to $2,810 support, and further down to $2,620-$2,700 range.