The Path to Bitcoin Recovery: Whale Sell-offs Halted, and Commodity Markets Send New Signals

Metal Market Movements Could Illuminate Bitcoin Price Trends

The upward trends in gold and silver suggest more than just fluctuations in commodity markets. Data analysts are focusing on the technical indicator of the copper/gold ratio, which is currently testing its bottom range. Interestingly, this correlation pattern aligns with past Bitcoin price bottoms.

Currently, Bitcoin(BTC) is trading around $95.44K, down 2.24% in the past 24 hours. The possibility of profit-taking funds from commodity traders flowing into the cryptocurrency market could serve as one of the bullish scenarios for a price recovery in 2026.

Signs that Long-Term Holder Selling Pressure Is Finally Subsiding

Throughout 2025, large-volume accounts held by long-term holders, known as whales, have been exerting downward pressure on the market through selling flows. In particular, December saw a surge in selling volume, worsening market sentiment.

However, the latest on-chain data indicates a significant turning point. The net position change of long-term holders has stabilized, and the acceleration of withdrawal waves has slowed. What does this mean? — a cycle of profit-taking pressure has eased.

This change should not be overlooked. If long-term holder selling slows down, bullish forces will find it easier to regain control. However, the prerequisite for this is a genuine recovery in demand.

Market Stagnation, Whale and Institutional Movements Still Weak

While there are positive signals, the overall market dynamics are still not aligned. On-chain activity shows that transaction activity at the whale level remains subdued, and institutional capital inflows are also negative.

Market sentiment indicators remain in extreme fear territory. Until demand clearly materializes and large players (whales and institutions) start to actively participate, significant price increases for Bitcoin will be difficult.

Will 2026 Bring a New Dynamic or Will the Downtrend Continue?

Optimists and pessimists hold contrasting views.

Optimists argue: the correlation of the copper/gold ratio, the halt in long-term holder selling, and the potential inflow of funds from commodity markets—all support a scenario of Bitcoin price recovery.

Meanwhile, skeptics suggest a different outlook. Media outlets like Barron’s point out that the crypto downturn could extend until 2026. Past similar phases were characterized by weak demand, continued price suppression, and low on-chain activity, which current conditions also reflect.

The possibility that the four-year cycle is still unfolding also conflicts with the supercycle theory.

A Turning Point May Come After January

With market uncertainty widespread, many investors are in a wait-and-see mode, awaiting clear signals. Once January arrives, new market dynamics could unfold, providing clues about the future price direction.

The scenario of Bitcoin price recovery is supported by technical support levels and structural market changes, but a strong demand-side recovery is essential for realization. Currently, market participants remain divided, and a period of waiting until a clear trend emerges is likely.