Arthur Hayes Analysis: RMP policy hints at a new round of liquidity release, Bitcoin is expected to break through $124,000

SerumSquirter · 2026-01-12T15:21:48+00:00

Cryptocurrency analyst Arthur Hayes believes that the Federal Reserve's RMP policy is akin to quantitative easing, which could lead to fiat currency devaluation and benefit Bitcoin. He predicts that Bitcoin will fluctuate between $80,000 and $100,000 in the short term, with the potential to rise to $120,000 and $200,000 in the future. He also shows caution, recently transferring large amounts of ETH, indicating vigilance toward short-term volatility.

SerumSquirter

2026-01-12 15:21:48

Abstract generation in progress

Renowned crypto analyst Arthur Hayes pointed out in his latest commentary that the Fed’s RMP (Reserve Management Purchase Program) is essentially a disguised form of quantitative easing. This move will inject a large amount of liquidity back into the market, ultimately increasing the risk of fiat currency devaluation.

How Policy Changes Affect the Crypto Market

Hayes believes that RMP is fundamentally no different from traditional QE in terms of economic impact—it is a tool for central banks to release liquidity. Such policies typically push risk asset prices higher, with Bitcoin, as a hedge against fiat devaluation, expected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $90.82K, slightly above the short-term volatility range Hayes mentioned (80,000-100,000 USD). Once the market fully recognizes that “RMP is equivalent to QE,” Bitcoin could quickly break upward.

Three Stages of Price Expectations

Hayes’ forecast framework is divided into three stages:

Stage One: In the coming weeks, Bitcoin will fluctuate within the 80,000-100,000 USD range, waiting for market consensus to form.

Stage Two: As the market realizes the deeper implications of the RMP policy, Bitcoin is expected to jump to $124,000, then rapidly approach the $200,000 level.

Stage Three: It is anticipated that before March next year, market sentiment may peak, followed by a technical correction, but the bottom support is expected to remain above $124,000.

Analyst’s Actual Actions

Notably, while Hayes has expressed optimism about the crypto market publicly, his recent actions suggest caution. Yesterday, he transferred 508,647 ETH (worth about $1.5 million) to Galaxy Digital, indicating he may be modestly reducing his positions, contrasting with his aggressive bullish outlook.

This kind of inconsistency is not uncommon among analysts, often reflecting their confidence in the overall direction while remaining alert to short-term volatility.

BTC-0.29%

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