Cryptocurrency Regulation Bill 2026 Sprint: Can Bipartisan Efforts Break the Deadlock?

The Time Window Is Narrowing

The opportunity window for the U.S. Congress to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency industry is rapidly closing. Industry insiders estimate that the comprehensive bill covering the entire digital asset market has a 50%-60% chance of becoming law by 2026. On the surface, this probability seems evenly split, but in reality, it signifies a high level of uncertainty—because every week of progress between now and the midterm elections is crucial to success or failure.

Kevin Wysocki, Policy Director at Anchorage Digital, pointed out that lawmakers have only the first half of 2026 as a critical period. Once the second half begins, senators will focus on their respective campaigns, and crypto regulation issues will be pushed to the sidelines.

Bipartisan Efforts to Find Consensus on “Certain Issues”

The most encouraging sign is the close communication between Republican and Democratic lawmakers. The Senate Banking Committee is pushing legislation called the “Digital Asset Market Structure Bill,” aimed at clearly delineating regulatory authority between the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). Meanwhile, the Senate Agriculture Committee has also introduced its own version, granting more power to the CFTC.

Both versions need to be merged and unified, then coordinated with the “Clear Act” passed by the House of Representatives this summer. This process involves at least two committee votes, one full Senate vote, and one House coordination—an extremely complex process.

Wysocki said, “The truly positive signal is that members of Congress—whether Republican or Democrat—are communicating frequently. But it’s important to understand that this bill covers banking law, securities law, and commodities law, making it quite complex.”

Four Major “Bottlenecks” Testing Lawmakers

The Stablecoin Interest Rate Battle

The banking industry is engaging in a heated debate. Trade groups claim that the stablecoin regulatory framework coming into effect in summer 2024 has loopholes—failing to fully prohibit issuers from offering interest yields on stablecoins. Banks argue this could turn stablecoins into savings tools, creating unfair competition with traditional finance.

Crypto industry rebuttals say that offering stablecoin yields is essentially normal market competition. This disagreement is no small matter because it touches on the fundamental definition of the regulatory framework.

The “Gray Area” of DeFi

Cody Cabbage, CEO of the Digital Chamber of Commerce, highlighted another tricky issue: how to regulate decentralized finance (DeFi). Specifically, how AML (Anti-Money Laundering) compliance can be implemented in DeFi protocols, and which agency should regulate certain tokens—these questions currently lack standard answers.

Industry concerns also include the possibility that the SEC might become the “sole decision-maker.” Given the tough stance of former SEC Chairmen, the industry generally worries that the SEC will monopolize authority. “If the SEC ultimately becomes the sole arbiter of whether a token is a security or a commodity, it’s almost like returning to the era where a single agency had all the power,” Cabbage said.

The Shadow of Conflicts of Interest for the President

The Trump family’s business interests in crypto have become a sensitive topic on the table. Public information shows that the President has profited over $600 million from family crypto projects (including World Liberty Financial), and holds a 20% stake in a Bitcoin mining company. Additionally, the launch of TRUMP and MELANIA meme coins has raised regulatory concerns.

Senator Cynthia Lummis of the Republican Party revealed that the White House has been involved in discussions about “ethical clauses,” but the submitted draft was returned—indicating ongoing disagreements on how to handle this sensitive issue.

CFTC Personnel Crisis

The agency set to gain broader regulatory authority is facing personnel issues. Over the past year, four commissioners have resigned or announced their departure, leaving only one permanent commissioner. The new Chair has been confirmed, but the CFTC still faces “access” issues. Cabbage said, “No senator is willing to give such extensive power to an agency that has only a Chair and no commission.”

“Progress in January Is Critical”

Cabbage set a red line: if the Senate Banking Committee does not complete the bill review in January, he will be in a “very pessimistic” state. He emphasized, “They need to show progress right from the start. If I see both committees conducting reviews, the Senate proposing a compromise bill, and a Senate full vote within the next six weeks, that’s a good sign.”

Saga CEO Rebecca Liao (a former member of Biden’s 2020 campaign team) added another risk: Congress must pass a new budget agreement by January 30, 2026, or face another government shutdown. Any budget deadlock would further compress legislative time.

Will There Be a “Small Window” After 2026?

Wysocki believes that even if the legislation isn’t completed in the first half of the year, it’s not entirely hopeless. “After the elections, perhaps around the end of 2026, there might be a small window of opportunity to push this legislation,” he said.

But Rebecca Liao warned that as midterm elections approach, Trump’s crypto conflicts of interest will become a key talking point for Democrats. Any policy perceived as “privileged” will be fiercely criticized—further complicating negotiations.

“Regulatory Clarity Cannot Wait Any Longer”

What happens if the comprehensive regulatory bill ultimately fails in 2026? Liao’s answer is: action must be taken. She pointed out that financial institutions have already entered the digital asset space on a large scale, and widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies requires a clear regulatory framework as a foundation. “People will push for it again,” she said, “because it’s not only an industry demand but also a necessary condition for the healthy operation of the financial system.”