From dreams of $200,000 to reality: how the Bitcoin market has fundamentally changed in 2025

The Fall of the Halving Mythology – An Era That Ended

For years, Bitcoin’s market cycle was like a clockwork mechanism. Every four years – reduced issuance, weaker miners dropping out, decreased selling pressure, rising prices. The pattern repeated reliably. However, data from 2025 indicate something entirely different: the halving mechanism has ceased to be the primary driver of prices.

After the 2024 halving, daily production was only about ~450 BTC (then ~40 million USD), but ETF flows regularly exceeded 1-3 billion dollars weekly. This shows the scale of the change. Even more telling are the numbers of institutional purchases: in 2025, they bought a total of about 944,000 BTC, while miners mined only 127,600 coins. Institutions bought over 7 times more than the new supply.

The Death of Consensus: How Breakthrough ETFs Changed the Market

In early 2025, everyone was talking about the same thing – Bitcoin reaching $200,000. Wall Street experts, including the famous analyst Tom Lee, pointed to institutional capital inflows and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Cathie Wood argued for higher valuations based on long-term adoption. SEC-approved spot ETFs – especially the IBIT BlackRock fund, which became a hit over the past 35 years in the ETF industry – were expected to trigger a massive influx of traditional capital.

Reality proved much more complicated. Bitcoin indeed hit new highs (reached about $122,000 in July), but the path was chaotic. Every time it approached higher levels, volatility exploded, and corrections interrupted the trend. By the end of 2025, Bitcoin hovered around $90,780 (data from January 12, 2026), while market sentiment dropped to panic levels last seen in 2020. The Fear & Greed Index hit 16 – the lowest since March 2020.

The New Reality: Fund Managers Instead of Miners

The Bitcoin market is undergoing a profound structural transformation. It is no longer miners and retail traders determining the direction, but behavioral anchoring of professional fund managers.

The average cost basis of spot ETF holders is now about $84,000 USD and has become the new reference point for the price. Professional managers settle results and bonuses at year-end – creating a two-year cycle instead of the traditional four:

• Year One: accumulation and growth – new capital flows into ETFs, price leads the cost basis, paper profits emerge
• Year Two: profit realization and reset – performance pressure for the year prompts selling risky positions, price corrects until a new, higher baseline is established

This pattern fully emerged in 2025. It creates a new, predictable – but also limiting – price dynamic.

Where Has Liquidity Gone? The Role of the Fed and Macro Revaluation

A common forecasting mistake was overestimating the “favorable macroeconomic winds.” Early in the year, the market widely expected aggressive rate cuts by the Fed in the second half of 2024 or early 2025. This expectation fueled the previous rally.

However, actual economic data was different. Employment and inflation slowed but not enough to justify drastic easing. Officials signaled more “cautious moves.” Cooling expectations of rate cuts directly lowered risk asset valuations – Bitcoin, with its high elasticity, took the first hit.

The real “market maker” of Bitcoin turned out to be the Fed, not institutions or whales. When hopes for a dovish monetary policy faded into history, the growth catalyst disappeared.

Redistribution in the Shadows: Who Profits and Who Sells

On-chain data from late 2025 reveal that not only prices shifted but also the token ownership structure. Average whales (10-1000 BTC) were net sellers – old players taking profits from previous years. Super-whales (over 10,000 BTC), on the contrary, increased positions and accumulated during declines.

Retail behavior became polarized. Some of the most emotional newcomers panic and close positions, but experienced long-term investors see the opportunity. This suggests that selling pressure mainly comes from weak hands, and tokens are concentrating among stronger players – a natural market cleansing process.

The Battle for 92K – Where Is Bitcoin Heading?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. The $92,000 level acts as a bottleneck:

• If it holds – a breakout and rally across the crypto market are possible
• If it breaks down – tests at $80,500 (November lows) and possibly $74,500 (annual lows) await

Interesting are also the derivatives market data. At the end of 2025, large open positions focused on put options at $85,000 and call options at $200,000 – indicating huge divergence in expectations and disbelief among both bulls and bears.

The Shadow of Artificial Intelligence

The last, but significant factor, is the competition of narratives. AI has become the dominant force in valuing global risk assets, and its volatility influences Bitcoin through risk budgets. The AI bubble directly limited the narrative space for crypto – even healthy on-chain data and an active developer ecosystem cannot recover the valuation premium.

But there is a chance: when the AI bubble enters a correction phase, it may free liquidity, risk appetite, and resources back into the crypto market.

Summary: From Halving Calculations to Fund Managers’ Balances

The collective failure of Bitcoin forecasts for 2025 is essentially a failure to understand the fundamental market change. When mechanical miner selling was replaced by a market driven by fund managers’ spreadsheets, the key to forecasting is no longer in halving dates but in tracking global liquidity flows, annual fund cycles, and institutional risk valuations.

By the end of 2025, Bitcoin remained a risky asset, but driven by a different force. A new era has already begun – the question is, who will adapt in time.