#MSCI未排除数字资产财库企业纳入范围 $ETH

⚠️ This topic might hit close to home: Will Ethereum really fall below $1000 in 2026?

Recently, there have been many voices claiming a bull market, but I want to look at it from a different perspective. By 2026, Ethereum may face a real test. Instead of a price prediction, it’s more like a questioning of the ecological logic.

**First Layer: Liquidity Cycle Pressure**

According to the four-year cycle pattern of crypto assets, 2026 coincides with the turning point from loose to tight global liquidity. The Federal Reserve’s rate cut benefits have already been digested by the market. What’s next? It’s very likely a systemic correction in risk assets. The volatility of second-tier coins is often 2-3 times that of Bitcoin, and historically, deep retracements of 70%-80% are not unfamiliar to ETH.

**Second Layer: The Dilemma of Mainnet Value Capture**

This is the most dangerous part. The current Ethereum ecosystem looks very prosperous—Base, Arbitrum, Optimism, these Layer 2 solutions are rapidly expanding, users are migrating, and transactions are surging. But here’s the problem: the Gas fees on the mainnet are continuously decreasing. What does this mean? Value is being drained. If ETH ends up only serving as a "settlement layer," where does the hundreds of billions of valuation come from? The bubble will inevitably burst.

**Third Layer: Opponent’s "Overtaking on Curves"**

High-performance public chains like Solana are voting with facts—faster transaction speeds, lower fees, better user experience. When the market truly starts making choices, how long can ETH’s "big brother" halo last? Capital is pragmatic.

💡 **Core Viewpoint:**

2026 will be a watershed moment for the public chain ecosystem. Either Ethereum finds a truly killer application at the application layer, or it will have to pay for the current valuation premium. The $800-$1000 range might be the price to clear the bubble.

⚠️ Disclaimer: For market observation and discussion only, not investment advice. Digital asset investments carry significant risks; please make decisions cautiously.