Is Bitcoin really caught in a valuation trap? When gold is in a "bubble" and warning signs from the parabolic curve

Current Situation: Bitcoin Faces Pressure

Bitcoin is trading around $90.64K with a 24-hour volatility of -0.26%, but beneath the surface, there are many warning signals that analysts cannot ignore. According to market analyst Michael van de Poppe, the RSI comparison index between Bitcoin and gold has dropped below 30 — a rare event that has only occurred four times in Bitcoin’s entire history.

Past Signals: 2015, 2018, 2022, and Now?

The three previous times when the Bitcoin/Gold RSI dipped below 30, all occurred near major market bottoms:

• 2015: First bear day
• 2018: Second bear day
• 2022: Third bear day

After each of these events, Bitcoin began a prolonged recovery cycle. Van de Poppe emphasizes that this pattern is not guaranteed, but it indicates a strong imbalance between the two assets. He suggests that gold is currently overvalued, while Bitcoin is at an attractive price. “Money may soon shift from gold to Bitcoin,” van de Poppe hints.

Additionally, the gap between Bitcoin’s current price and the 20-week moving average is at an unusual level — a condition historically often leading to price rebounds.

Risks from Parabolic Curves and 80% Warning

Veteran trader Peter Brandt issued a concerning warning: Bitcoin has broken its parabolic trend line. In previous market cycles, when the parabolic curve is broken, prices typically fall by up to 80% from the peak.

Currently, Bitcoin is about 20% below its ATH of $126.08K (from the latest data). If history repeats itself, an 80% drop would mean Bitcoin falling to $25,240. Brandt notes that such extreme volatility often occurs when global financial conditions tighten.

Market Data Sends Mixed Signals

Glassnode’s recent BTC Pulse report states that Bitcoin’s 14-day RSI has returned to a neutral level — not a sign of optimism. More concerning, the delta of the accumulated volume (CVD) has turned negative, indicating selling pressure is dominating the current market.

Trading volume is also at historic lows, while open interest in futures contracts has only decreased slightly. Long-term positions still exist but could be vulnerable if prices continue to decline.

Corrections and Key Levels to Watch

After Bitcoin was rejected at $90,000 and support failed to hold, prices corrected along with gold and US stocks. Van de Poppe is monitoring important levels:

• $88,000: If Bitcoin recovers above this level, it could signal positive momentum and trigger bullish sentiment
• $83,800: A secondary support level
• $80,500: If the bearish trend continues, this level may be tested

But This Cycle Is Different

Not everything is bleak. Data shows that Bitcoin’s holder composition has changed significantly. Institutions now hold over 1.08 million BTC — up from about 197,000 BTC at the start of 2023, an increase of 448%.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. points out that “Bitcoin is currently in a correction phase after three years of growth.” The participation of these institutions may limit the risk of Bitcoin falling into an 80% scenario like previous cycles. Long-term investors typically do not panic sell during short-term corrections.

Upcoming Macro Risks

Van de Poppe warns that the market is under pressure from multiple fronts: US unemployment data, inflation data, and an anticipated rate hike from the Bank of Japan. Historically, Bitcoin tends to react negatively after rate hikes from Tokyo.

In summary: Bitcoin is caught between optimistic signals (RSI vs. gold, price imbalance), and real warnings (parabolic curve break, low volume, macro pressures). With Bitcoin trading at $90.64K, the balance between risk and opportunity remains very fragile.