Ethereum Tests Support Threshold as ETF Capital Flows Signal Initial Recovery

The Ethereum market (ETH) is going through a tough phase with trader sentiment swinging between hope and concern. The current price is around $3.11K, but the inflow of funds into spot ETFs is beginning to show signs of revival, creating a complex and contradictory market picture.

ETF Capital Flows: A Ray of Hope Amidst Data Storms

According to analysis from Glassnode, Ethereum ETF funds have experienced an impressive recovery in recent weeks. The total net assets of spot ETFs increased from $16.8 billion USD to $21.5 billion USD since November 21, a 28% rise. This figure reflects growing demand from institutional investors gradually returning to the ETH market.

However, this recovery still lags significantly behind the peak of $32 billion USD recorded in early October. This gap reveals that institutional confidence has not yet fully recovered, and they remain cautious.

Taker Volume: A Market Sentiment Map

Data from CryptoQuant provides a deeper insight into market structure. The net taker volume is currently at a negative $138 million USD, but this is a significant improvement compared to the extreme $500 million USD in October. This change indicates that the aggressive sellers who once dominated the market are gradually losing momentum.

The 30-day moving average (or 30-day exponential moving average) of net taker volume shows an upward pattern at the lows. This structure is similar to what was observed in early 2025, a period before a tripling of ETH’s price and the establishment of a new all-time high.

Technical Analysis: A Strategic Move in the Battle

On the four-hour chart, Ethereum is testing the $3,100-$3,180 order block zone, a region that could serve as a crucial demand zone. ETH continues to respect the upward channel formed, but momentum is clearly waning.

The market is at a pivotal crossroads. In an optimistic bullish scenario, if the demand zone holds and the uptrend channel remains intact, ETH could target the $3,450 level. A clear breakout above this level would invalidate the rejection at $3,650 and open the path toward resistance at $3,900.

Conversely, if the price breaks below the uptrend channel, a downtrend would be confirmed, making the $3,000 support the next target.

Derivatives Market: Uncertain Sentiment

Data from Hyblock Capital shows that Ether derivatives products are reflecting a neutral but weak stance. The total open interest (OI) has slightly decreased after the recent rejection. The funding rate is positive but not stretched, and the bid/ask ratio remains near neutral, indicating that spot takers have not yet taken a clear stance on the price direction.

Next Moves: The Battle Between Bulls and Bears

Ethereum’s upcoming moves largely depend on whether the bulls can defend the demand zone long enough. If they succeed, improved taker flows and increased ETF demand could translate into sustained upward pressure, paving the way for a strong breakout in the coming weeks.