Non-farm payroll data once again surprises to the downside, with only 50,000 new jobs added in December, hitting a new low for the post-pandemic year. The figures for the first two months were also revised downward by 76,000, which is quite a blow. Although the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4%, it looks good on the surface, but the truth is that the labor force participation rate is declining—this kind of "phantom" decline is hard to get excited about. Companies are pulling back on hiring, and the ongoing impact of high interest rates is still unfolding, so the job market is indeed cooling down.

Interestingly, there is already internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve. Board member Mester is strongly advocating for a 150 basis point rate cut this year to support the economy, but the FOMC's dot plot only hints at one rate cut, and hawks are still worried about inflation rebounding. The market has essentially priced in a near-zero probability of a rate cut in January. Goldman Sachs is optimistic that inflation will gently return to 2.1%, and expects the Fed to cut rates twice this year. The prolonged delay in easing liquidity has been long overdue, but the probability that it will truly be absent is low.

From the crypto perspective, looking at just one or two macro data points makes it hard to change the overall trend, but the capital has already spoken: there have been phased outflows from Bitcoin ETFs recently, while ETFs for Ethereum, SOL, XRP, and others are still absorbing funds. The institutional logic is clear—shifting from a "all-in BTC" single bet to a diversified allocation, and this adjustment has already taken shape. In the short term, focus on upcoming inflation reports and Fed speeches; in the long term, the macro trend is that the high-interest-rate environment is gradually loosening, and the process of crypto asset regulation is accelerating. #美国非农就业数据未达市场预期 $SOL