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Recently, the market has been fluctuating frequently, and many investors are starting to lose patience, hoping to buy the dip at lower prices. But at this moment, it’s actually better to stay calm.
"Good opportunities are created by waiting"—this is a principle repeatedly emphasized by investment masters like Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, and Duan Yongping. However, very few people in the crypto world can truly do this.
What is the biggest test when dealing with cyclical markets? It’s overcoming the gambling instinct. Many people only realize they’ve run out of chips when the real opportunity arrives. That’s why some chase high at the end of a bull market, but have no bullets left at the bottom of a bear market.
Looking at Bitcoin alone, it does seem to be at a cyclical low point. But if we consider the US stock market, I find it hard to convince myself to buy BTC at this moment.
In recent years, a clear phenomenon has emerged—US stocks experience a correction once a year, and the frequency is increasing. More importantly, the total market value of US stocks has surpassed that of the US real estate market. Historically, this has only happened twice, and both times, a significant bear market followed in the subsequent years.
The correlation between the crypto market and US stocks is becoming closer. Once US stocks enter a cyclical correction, the crypto market often bears the brunt. From this perspective, it’s not the best time to enter yet.
I have been holding a cash position for several months, waiting—waiting for a truly worthwhile opportunity to go all in. Not a small rebound, but a bottom opportunity that makes you regret not investing more.
Trust me, when that moment comes, I will not hesitate for half a second.