SpaceX's $1.5 Trillion Bet: From Mockery to Reshaping Aerospace Rules

December 13th, Wall Street once again marvels at SpaceX’s valuation.

According to an internal stock issuance memorandum, SpaceX’s valuation has risen to $800 billion. Elon Musk’s goal is that at the time of the initial public offering (IPO), it could surpass $1.5 trillion, breaking the record of $1.7 trillion set when Saudi Aramco went public in 2019, becoming the largest IPO in human history.

Behind this figure lies a bigger secret: the support for SpaceX’s sky-high valuation has evolved from rockets themselves to Starlink, the world’s largest satellite internet empire.

From “Manufacturing Loser” to Aerospace Giant in 23 Years

Let’s go back to 2001. A 30-year-old Elon Musk had just cashed out hundreds of millions of dollars from PayPal. He could have enjoyed a wealthy life in Silicon Valley. But he made a crazy decision — to build rockets and go to Mars.

No one believed in this idea. Musk even traveled to Moscow, trying to buy used rockets from Russia. The result was humiliating — Russian designers bluntly told him he “did not understand aerospace,” and quoted sky-high prices. On the return flight, Musk was tapping on his computer, then suddenly turned around and showed a chart: “We can build our own.”

In February 2002, SpaceX was founded in a 75,000-square-foot abandoned warehouse in the Los Angeles suburbs. Musk put in $100 million as startup capital.

But reality quickly delivered a harsh blow to this idealist — building rockets required far more capital than he imagined. Industry giants like Boeing and Lockheed Martin controlled the entire market. They were used to government orders with astronomical prices, and had only one attitude towards this “interloper”: mockery.

The Counterattack in the Desperate Moment

What followed were a series of failures.

In 2006, Falcon 1 exploded 25 seconds after launch. The second attempt in 2007 also failed. The third failure in 2008 was the most devastating — the rocket disintegrated in midair.

Mockery was everywhere. Some harshly commented: “Does he think rockets are like writing code? Can you patch them?”

2008 was the darkest moment in Musk’s life. The global financial crisis swept the world, Tesla was on the brink of bankruptcy, his wife left him, and SpaceX’s funds were only enough for one last launch. If it failed, everything would vanish into smoke.

The cruelest blow came from his idol. “Moon landing first man” Armstrong and “Last man on the Moon” Cernan publicly expressed skepticism about his plans. Armstrong even coldly said, “You don’t understand what you don’t understand.”

In later interviews, Musk mentioned this period with tears in his eyes. He said, “These are my heroes in my mind. It was really tough. I really hope they could see how hard my work is.”

The Fourth Miracle

On September 28, 2008, silence enveloped the entire control room.

Falcon 1 launched, and the Dragon lit up the night. Nine minutes later, the engine shut down as planned, and the payload entered the designated orbit. The control center erupted in thunderous applause. Musk raised both arms, tears streaming down his face, beside him his brother.

SpaceX became the world’s first private aerospace company to successfully launch a rocket into orbit.

On December 22, NASA called, ending Musk’s despair in 2008 — SpaceX received a $1.6 billion contract to ferry 12 missions to the International Space Station. Musk blurted out: “I love NASA,” and even changed his computer login password to “ilovenasa.”

Having narrowly escaped death, SpaceX survived.

Using “Cheap” Materials to Build Top-Grade Engineering

Surviving was just the beginning. Musk insisted on a seemingly irrational goal: reusability of rockets.

Almost all industry experts opposed it. But Musk dismantled all doubts with first principles thinking — if airplanes are discarded after one flight, no one can afford to fly; if rockets cannot be reused, aerospace will forever be a game for the few.

In 2001, Musk used an Excel sheet to analyze the cost structure of rocket manufacturing. He found that the costs were artificially inflated by traditional aerospace giants by dozens of times — a screw costing hundreds of dollars, while raw materials are sold for just a few dollars at the London Metal Exchange. Since costs are artificially inflated, they can definitely be driven down.

On December 21, 2015, a historic moment arrived. Falcon 9 carrying 11 satellites was launched from Cape Canaveral. Ten minutes later, the first stage booster landed vertically at a landing site in Florida — just like in a sci-fi movie.

The old rules of aerospace were thoroughly shattered. The era of low-cost aerospace was ushered in by this former “loser” company.

While developing Starship (for Mars colonization), Musk again challenged industry consensus. At the time, everyone believed that carbon fiber composites were necessary to reach Mars. But Musk did some calculations: carbon fiber costs $135 per kilogram and requires expensive insulation systems; whereas 304 stainless steel (used in water towers) costs only $3 per kilogram, with a melting point of 1400°C, and its strength actually increases at cryogenic temperatures with liquid oxygen.

Including insulation weight, the total weight of a stainless steel rocket system is comparable to that of a carbon fiber one, but the cost is reduced by 40 times.

SpaceX completely freed itself from the shackles of precision manufacturing. They don’t need clean rooms; they can weld rockets in a tent in the Texas wilderness just like building water towers. If they blow up, no big deal — just sweep up the debris and continue tomorrow.

Starlink: The Real Money Printer

Technological breakthroughs have driven valuation skyrocketing. From $1.3 billion in 2012, to $400 billion in July 2024, and now $800 billion, SpaceX has “hitched a ride on the rocket.”

But what truly sustains this sky-high valuation is not rockets, but Starlink.

This constellation of thousands of satellites is becoming the world’s largest internet service provider, transforming “aerospace” from a spectacle into a fundamental infrastructure like water and electricity. Whether on a Pacific cruise or in war-torn ruins, as long as there is a small pizza-box-sized receiver, signals pour down from low Earth orbit.

As of November 2025, Starlink has 7.65 million active global subscribers, with over 24.5 million actual users. North America accounts for 43% of subscriptions, while emerging markets like Korea and Southeast Asia contribute 40% of new users.

This is also the real reason Wall Street dares to give SpaceX sky-high valuations — not because of frequent rocket launches, but because of the recurring revenue from Starlink.

Financial data shows that SpaceX’s expected revenue in 2025 is $15 billion, soaring to $22-24 billion in 2026, with over 80% coming from Starlink. SpaceX has completed a stunning transformation, evolving from an aerospace contractor relying on contracts to a global telecom giant with a monopoly-level moat.

The Ultimate Ambition on the Eve of IPO

According to Musk’s plan, in 2026, the IPO will raise over $30 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion record.

But for Musk, an IPO is not a traditional “cash-out,” but an expensive “refueling.”

In 2022, he once told employees coldly: “Going public is an invitation to pain; the stock price will only distract you.” Three years later, he changed his attitude — all for one reason: he needs more money.

According to his timetable, within two years, the first Starship will conduct uncrewed Mars landing tests; within four years, humans will step on Mars’ red soil. In 20 years, a self-sustaining city will be established on Mars with 1,000 Starships — all at an astronomical cost.

Musk has repeatedly stated in interviews that the only purpose of accumulating wealth is to make humanity a “multi-planetary species.”

From this perspective, the hundreds of billions raised in the IPO are Musk’s “interstellar tolls” paid by Earthlings. The funds raised will ultimately turn into fuel, steel, and oxygen, paving the long road to Mars.