The core insights of the 500-page research report: The three major turning points in the crypto market by 2026

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

The crypto industry in 2026 is undergoing a silent shift. As leading research institutions Delphi Digital, Messari, Four Pillars, Coinbase, and a16z Crypto release their annual outlooks, they all point to the same conclusion—the dominance of the speculative cycle is waning, and structural maturity is taking over the market.

We have carefully reviewed nearly five hundred pages of research reports from these five organizations and identified the three most noteworthy turning points.

Turning Point 1: “The Cycle is Dead,” Structural Drivers Become the New Normal

The traditional four-year halving speculative cycle is fading. This is not a prediction unique to any single organization but a consensus across the industry.

Major research institutions believe that future market momentum will come from three levels:

Macro liquidity synchronization. Delphi Digital notes that global central bank policies will become more aligned, the era of quantitative tightening (QT) is ending, replaced by a unified liquidity easing cycle. This means hard assets like gold and Bitcoin will benefit from improved global capital conditions.

Upgrading of token economic models. Coinbase refers to this as “Token Economy 2.0”—shifting from simple governance tokens to models tied to revenue. Protocols will gradually adopt token buyback and burn or fee-sharing mechanisms, aligning the interests of token holders with platform success.

Redefinition of ownership. Messari emphasizes the emergence of “Ownership Coins,” which combine economic, legal, and governance rights. Research predicts this new category could spawn projects valued at around $110 billion and may address DAO accountability crises.

Turning Point 2: AI Agents Become Economic Actors, Identity Verification Faces Innovation

“Agentic Finance” is no longer just a concept; it is an imminent reality.

Institutions like a16z Crypto and Coinbase predict that AI agents will evolve from chat tools into genuine economic participants—they will autonomously manage capital, execute complex DeFi strategies, and optimize on-chain transactions without human intervention.

The most immediate impact of this shift is the evolution of identity verification systems. As AI agents become primary economic actors, traditional KYC (Know Your Customer) frameworks will become obsolete, replaced by KYA (Know Your Agent)—AI agents will need to conduct transactions via cryptographic signatures, leading to the creation of a new layer of identity infrastructure.

A deeper impact involves changes in payment and settlement methods. a16z points out that AI agents will extensively utilize encrypted payment channels for microtransactions. Existing financial infrastructure cannot support this frequency and cost, so demand for “crypto-native settlement layers” will grow explosively.

Turning Point 3: Regulatory Clarity Drives Application Integration, Privacy Becomes a Competitive Moat

All four institutions touch on the key variable of regulation. Four Pillars believes that upcoming US legislation like the GENIUS and CLARITY acts will serve as blueprints for market restructuring, transitioning the crypto industry from the “Wild West” to a formal economic sector.

The direct consequence of regulatory clarity is application layer integration. Once legal frameworks are clear, fragmented crypto ecosystems will gradually merge into “Super-Apps,” driven by stablecoins, combining payments, investments, and lending. These platforms will hide technical complexities and promote large-scale user adoption.

The technological layer is also aligning with this trend. Four Pillars emphasizes the importance of zero-knowledge virtual machines (ZKVM) and proof markets, which are seen as critical infrastructure to handle the traffic scale of emerging regulatory bodies.

Meanwhile, privacy will move from the periphery to the center. In an era of widespread open-source code, a16z believes privacy technologies—especially the ability to maintain state privacy—will become the most important competitive advantage in blockchain. Messari even predicts a revival in privacy, re-pricing assets like Zcash as essential hedges against surveillance and corporate control.

New Opportunities Map

The core logic behind these five hundred pages of reports is: shifting from chasing cycles to understanding capital flows.

In 2026, attention will be rewarded to projects quietly building in these three areas:

1. Settlement layers and infrastructure—providing foundational support for AI agents, privacy applications, and super-apps
2. Aggregation platforms—integrating fragmented crypto experiences to reduce user cognitive load
3. Practical applications and trust—moving from experimental projects to systems that attract real users and capital

In the past, under the “speculative cycle,” winners were the fastest narrative chasers. In the era of structural maturity, winners will be the deepest builders of foundational infrastructure.