How far is SpaceX from a $1.5 trillion valuation? Those moments on the brink of despair

Elon Musk almost lost everything.

On December 13, an internal financing document dropped a bombshell on Wall Street. SpaceX’s latest funding round valued the company at $80 billion, and according to insiders, Musk is actively preparing for an IPO in 2026, aiming to raise over $30 billion. If Musk’s ambitions are realized, SpaceX’s eventual valuation could reach $1.5 trillion, surpassing the record set by Saudi Aramco’s IPO in 2019.

But the story’s beginning was far from glamorous.

Near-Desperate 2008

Looking back to winter 2008, no one would believe the current situation.

At that time, SpaceX was seen by Boeing and Lockheed Martin as just an ant that could be crushed at any moment. The company was going through an endless disaster.

Musk was 30 years old, having just cashed out hundreds of millions of dollars from PayPal. He could have easily bought stock funds and lived a carefree life like other Silicon Valley entrepreneurs. But he chose a crazy path—building rockets and going to Mars.

In 2001, he even flew to Russia, trying to buy rockets from the Dnepr rocket design bureau. He was publicly ridiculed by a Russian engineer who told him, “You don’t understand space technology at all.” On the return flight, everyone was dejected, except Musk, who was typing on his keyboard. He suddenly turned around and said something that changed history: “We can build our own.”

In February 2002, SpaceX was founded in a 75,000-square-foot warehouse outside Los Angeles. Musk invested $100 million, aiming to become the “Southwest Airlines of space.”

But reality quickly slapped him in the face. Building rockets was not only difficult but insanely expensive. There’s a saying in the industry: “Without a billion dollars, you can’t even wake Boeing.” $100 million in this industry is like a drop in the ocean.

Worse, SpaceX faced a market monopolized by Boeing and Lockheed Martin. These giants not only led in technology but also had deep government connections. For newcomers like SpaceX, their attitude was only one thing: mockery.

The Cost of Continuous Failures

In 2006, Falcon 1’s first launch. It exploded just 25 seconds after liftoff.

In 2007, the second launch. Failed again.

In August 2008, the third launch. The first and second stages collided, instantly turning into debris over the Pacific.

Mockery was constant. Some ridiculed, “He thinks building rockets is like coding, can he patch it?”

This was Musk’s darkest year. The global financial crisis erupted, Tesla was on the brink of bankruptcy, and his wife of ten years left him. Even more critically, SpaceX’s funds were running out.

The last launch’s funding was just enough. If the fourth failed, SpaceX would disband immediately, and Musk would have nothing.

Then, another brutal blow came. Musk’s childhood idols—moon landing astronauts Armstrong and Cernan—publicly expressed skepticism about his rocket plans. Armstrong even bluntly said, “You don’t understand what you don’t know.”

Years later, in an interview, Musk choked up when recalling this period. He didn’t cry over rocket explosions or near bankruptcy, but he cried when his idols doubted him. He told the host, “These are my heroes, and it’s really hard. I wish they could see how hard I work.”

A Second to Come Back from the Dead

September 28, 2008, this date would be etched into human spaceflight history.

There were no grand speeches or inspiring slogans on launch day, only a group silently watching screens in the control room.

The rocket lifted off. No explosion. Nine minutes later, the engine shut down as planned, and the payload entered its orbit.

“Success!” erupted in cheers and applause in the control room. Musk raised his hands, and his brother Kimbal, standing beside him, cried.

Falcon 1 became the first privately-funded rocket to reach orbit successfully. SpaceX not only survived but also gained critical redemption.

Four days before Christmas, NASA Administrator William Gerstenmaier called, bringing closure to the 2008 turmoil. SpaceX secured a $1.6 billion contract to handle 12 cargo trips to and from the International Space Station.

Musk was so excited he changed his computer password to “ilovenasa.”

Redefining Rockets

After surviving, Musk was obsessed with a seemingly crazy goal: Rockets must be reusable.

Almost all engineers within the company opposed this. Not because it was technically impossible, but because it was too risky commercially. Just as no one would pay to recover disposable paper cups, no one thought recovering rockets was a profitable business.

But Musk’s logic was simple: if airplanes could only fly once and then be scrapped, no one could fly; if rockets couldn’t be reused, space exploration would forever be a game for the few.

This obsession stemmed from his fundamental principle: when analyzing rocket costs in Excel, he found that traditional manufacturers had artificially inflated their prices by dozens of times. A single screw might sell for hundreds of dollars, while aluminum and titanium were much cheaper on the London Metal Exchange. If costs could be artificially inflated, they could also be artificially lowered.

Based on this first principle, SpaceX embarked on a seemingly hopeless journey. Launch, explosion, analysis, more explosions, and continued attempts at recovery…

On December 21, 2015, a miracle happened.

A Falcon 9 carrying 11 satellites launched from Cape Canaveral. Ten minutes later, the first stage returned to the launch site and landed vertically, just like in a sci-fi movie.

At that moment, all old rules in the aerospace industry were broken. The era of cheap space had officially begun, led by this once-mocked “underdog.”

Using Cheap Materials for Cutting-Edge Technology

If rocket recovery was SpaceX’s physics challenge, building Starship from stainless steel was Musk’s engineering blow.

During the development of Starship, the industry consensus was to use expensive carbon fiber composites. SpaceX had invested heavily in this, building large-scale carbon fiber winding equipment. But high costs and delays made Musk alert.

He returned to first principles and did the math: carbon fiber costs $135 per kilogram and is difficult to process; 304 stainless steel—used for pots and pans—costs only $3 per kilogram.

Engineers opposed: “Stainless steel is too heavy!”

Musk pointed out an overlooked physical fact: carbon fiber has poor heat resistance and requires heavy, expensive insulation bricks; stainless steel melts at 1,400°C and performs more stably in cryogenic liquid oxygen environments. Plus, with insulation, the total weight of a stainless steel rocket is comparable to carbon fiber, but costs are 40 times cheaper!

This decision completely liberated SpaceX. They no longer needed sterile cleanrooms; they could just set up a tent in the Texas desert and build rockets like welding water tanks. Explosions? Just blow up and weld the fragments back together.

“Using cheap materials to make cutting-edge technology”—this is SpaceX’s true competitive advantage.

Starlink Is the Real Gold Mine

From a valuation of $1.3 billion in 2012, to $400 billion in July 2024, and now $800 billion, SpaceX’s valuation has truly “shot to the stars.”

But what sustains this astronomical valuation isn’t the rockets themselves, but Starlink.

Before Starlink, SpaceX was just a dazzling headline—either exploding or landing. Starlink changed everything.

This network of thousands of low-earth orbit satellites is becoming the world’s largest internet service provider. It turns “space exploration” from an intangible vision into infrastructure like water and electricity.

On yachts in the Pacific or in war-torn ruins, as long as you have a pizza-box-sized receiver, signals stream down from hundreds of kilometers above. It not only reshapes global communications but also becomes a super printing press, providing continuous cash flow for SpaceX.

As of November 2025, Starlink has over 7.65 million registered users worldwide, with actual users exceeding 24.5 million. North America accounts for 43% of subscriptions, while emerging markets like South Korea and Southeast Asia contribute 40% of new users.

This is the real reason Wall Street dares to offer SpaceX such sky-high valuations—not because of launch frequency, but because of the cyclical revenue from Starlink.

Financial data projects SpaceX’s revenue at $15 billion in 2025, potentially soaring to $22-24 billion in 2026, with over 80% coming from Starlink.

SpaceX has completed a stunning transformation—from a pure aerospace contractor to a telecom giant controlling the global communications high ground.

The Final Sprint Before IPO

If SpaceX successfully raises $30 billion this time, it will surpass Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record of $29 billion and become the largest IPO in human history.

According to some investment banks’ predictions, SpaceX’s final valuation could even reach $1.5 trillion, directly entering the top 20 largest publicly listed companies worldwide.

What does this mean for employees at Boca Chica and Hawthorne factories? In the latest internal funding round, the share price was set at $420 per share. Engineers who have slept on factory floors and endured countless “manufacturing hell” moments will see a wave of millionaires, even billionaires emerge.

But for Musk, an IPO isn’t just about “cash-out and leave.” He was strongly opposed to going public before. At the 2022 SpaceX employee meeting, he poured cold water on everyone: “Going public is an invitation to pain; the stock price will only distract you.”

Three years later, what changed his attitude?

Dreams need fuel. According to Musk’s schedule, in the next two years, they aim to complete unmanned Starship Mars landing tests; within four years, humans will step onto Martian soil; the ultimate goal is to use 1,000 Starships to establish a self-sustaining city on Mars within 20 years. All of this requires astronomical funding.

He has openly stated in multiple interviews that the only purpose of accumulating wealth is to make humanity a “multi-planetary species.”

From this perspective, the hundreds of billions raised in the IPO won’t become yachts and villas but fuel, steel, and oxygen, paving the long road to Mars.

This may be the most magnificent fundraising in human history—the endpoint isn’t on Earth.