New Year trading is sluggish, and markets are preparing for major changes in 2026: gold is hitting a record high, oil is under pressure

January 1, 2026, most of the world’s financial centers are closed for the New Year holiday. Trading activity is minimal, but the preliminary data for the past year paint an interesting picture of capital movement between assets. One of the most notable trends of 2025 is the radical devaluation of the dollar position. The US dollar index fell by more than 9%, marking the largest annual decline since 2017, while the euro rose by 13%, the British pound by 7%, and the Swedish krona by an impressive 20%. The reason lies in the cycle of Federal Reserve rate cuts that lasted throughout the year, coupled with investor concerns about the potential consequences of the new administration’s trade policies.

Noble Metals: Gold Hits Records, Silver Soars into Space

The most remarkable achievement of 2025 is the unprecedented price dynamics in the precious metals market. Gold prices increased by about 64% over the year — the strongest annual gain in half a century, since 1979. In the final trading session of the year, spot gold decreased by 0.6% to $4,318.67 per ounce, but for the full year, it remained at historic highs.

Even more impressive figures are shown by silver — its annual growth reached 147%, surpassing any historical records for this metal. Platinum surged by more than 122%, setting its own records, and palladium grew by over 75% — its strongest result in 15 years. In the last trade of 2025, silver fell by 6.7% to $71.36, platinum by 8.7% to $2,006.95.

This hot streak of noble metals was fueled by several factors simultaneously: consistent liberalization of the Fed’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions on the global stage, unstoppable demand from central banks, and massive inflows into gold ETFs. Silver received an additional boost from structural supply deficits and inclusion in the US list of critically important strategic materials. Analysts suggest that in 2026, gold could potentially approach $5,000 per ounce, and silver could surpass the $100 mark.

In the short term, experts expect some volatility due to profit-taking by investors, but the long-term trend remains bullish for the entire precious metals complex.

Stock Markets: Year of AI Triumph, but Ending with Adjustments

The US stock indices closed 2025 with a mixed session. Dow Jones fell by 0.63%, S&P 500 by 0.74%, Nasdaq by 0.76%. However, these final declines did not overshadow the grand annual achievements: all three major indices ended the year with double-digit gains, continuing their upward trajectory for the third consecutive year.

The main theme of 2025 was artificial intelligence. AI sector stocks repeatedly set new all-time highs. Notably, Nvidia — a manufacturer of graphics processors — rose by 39% and became the first publicly traded company in the world with a market capitalization exceeding $5 trillion. The communication services sector, boosted by Alphabet’s 65% growth, outperformed all other S&P 500 sectors in annual return.

However, towards the end of the year, the market experienced a correction — profit-taking was observed, with the energy and technology sectors leading the decline. Experts see this as healthy volatility that does not affect the overall optimistic outlook for 2026. Market breadth is expected to expand — funds flowing out of a few giants into sectors with higher growth potential.

A key variable for stock markets in 2026 will remain the Federal Reserve’s course. Currently, the market anticipates a possible rate cut of about 50 basis points, although some members of the newly appointed Fed leadership are cautious about further easing. If the labor market continues to strengthen, the Fed may hold rates at the current level longer than consensus expects.

An interesting exception amid the widespread decline was Nike stock, which rose by 4% after the CEO announced a $1 million stock buyback.

Oil: Three-Year Downward Spiral Continues

The energy market situation sharply contrasts with the precious metals sector. Oil prices in 2025 turned out to be among the weakest in recent years — both benchmark contracts fell by approximately 20%, marking the largest annual decline since 2020. Brent declined by 0.8% in the final trade to $60.85 per barrel, US WTI by 0.9% to $57.42 per barrel.

Brent has been in a third year of declining trend — the longest series of annual decreases in observation history. Despite geopolitical conflicts, sanctions against oil-producing countries, and US tariff policy uncertainty, the market remains oversupplied.

US shale oil producers actively hedged at high prices of previous years, ensuring their production resilience against price fluctuations. EIA data reports that the US reached a record high of production in October, and gasoline and distillate inventories are growing significantly faster than forecasts — signaling weak demand and overfilled storage.

Investment banks forecast further oil price declines today and in the first quarter of 2026, but from the second half of the year, a gradual recovery to around $60 per barrel is expected if supply stabilizes. Key observations remain on the global demand-supply balance, OPEC+ strategies, and geopolitical developments in critical oil-producing regions.

Currency Market: Miniature Summary of the Dollar Amid Year-Long Weakness

The dollar index at the closing session of 2025 rose by 0.27% to 98.50 points, supported by strong employment data. The initial unemployment claims fell to 199,000 — the lowest in a month, exceeding market optimism.

However, this one-day rebound did not reverse the overall fate of the US dollar during the year. Besides the decline against global partners, the Bank of Japan doubled its rates (twice in a year), keeping the yen’s exchange rate against the dollar nearly unchanged — 156.96 at the final trade. The market considers potential interventions by Japanese authorities.

Projections for 2026 are divided. Most experts assume that dollar weakness may persist, but some analysts see signs that the US currency’s devaluation cycle is approaching its final phase.

Global and Local News

China’s space program set a new world record — over 90 space launches were conducted in 2025. China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation separately completed 73 launches, their maximum. Changzheng series rockets made 69 launches, deploying over 300 satellites. The average launch cycle shortened to approximately 5 days.

The world’s largest nuclear plant “Hualong One” at the Zhangzhou complex was officially commissioned on January 1. The second reactor successfully passed a 168-hour full-power test. The plant will add 6 units, producing about 20 billion kWh of clean electricity annually.

Southern China reached a historic milestone — the Southwest Oil & Gas Field has for the first time reached an annual production of 50 billion m³ of natural gas, equivalent to 40 million tons of oil equivalent. This puts southern China on the path to reaching 100 billion m³ of production in the Sichuan-Chongqing megaproject.

Bulgaria officially joined the eurozone on January 1, 2026. The local currency was withdrawn from circulation, and the euro became the official means of payment. This is a logical final step following its accession to the EU in 2007.

The US labor market remains stable — initial unemployment claims fell to 199,000 for the week ending December 27, below the forecast (220 thousand). The number of people receiving permanent assistance decreased to 1.87 million. These data reflect typical holiday period volatility.