FOMC Meeting Minutes Released Today: How Short-Term Bitcoin Traders Should Position

The Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the December 10 FOMC meeting today. This document will serve as a key catalyst in determining whether Bitcoin can break through critical levels in the coming weeks. Currently, BTC has been consolidating between $87,000 and $90,000 for over a month, and the market is holding its breath, waiting for signals from this release.

## What Technicals Are Telling Us

Bitcoin is currently priced at $90.61K, repeatedly testing below a key resistance level. According to technical analysis, if BTC can effectively hold above $90,000, it could open the possibility of targeting $95,000 or even breaking into six-figure territory. Conversely, if it falls below the $87,000 support, the market will test the demand zone at $84,000–$85,000, a critical bottom that has been in play since November.

Currently trading below the main resistance near the VWAP anchor, the low point at $86,690 remains the primary liquidity target below. During the holiday period, market liquidity is relatively thin, which could amplify volatility. Traders should exercise caution in facing potential rapid swings.

## How the FOMC Minutes Might Influence Risk Appetite

Historical data shows that approximately 75% of the time after FOMC events, markets experience declines, with only 12.5% seeing gains, and the remaining 12.5% showing no clear direction. This statistical outcome explains why many traders tend to be conservative ahead of such macro events.

According to the latest CME FedWatch Tool expectations: the probability of a rate cut in January is about 16%, in March about 52%, and in July about 59%. Notably, the Fed’s own dot plot indicates an average of only 33 basis points of rate cuts by 2026, reflecting a cautious "wait-and-see" stance among policymakers. Today’s minutes are expected to further reveal internal disagreements among officials regarding the easing pace, especially amid mixed signals from inflation and employment data.

## Rate Cut Signals and the Chain Reaction on the Dollar

If the minutes suggest that the Fed is inclined to implement more rate cuts in 2026, the dollar will face depreciation pressure, increasing the attractiveness of risk assets, and capital could flow back into Bitcoin and other risk assets. Conversely, if the minutes reinforce the Fed’s cautious stance, the dollar may strengthen, risk sentiment could retreat, and Bitcoin will face renewed selling pressure.

Given Bitcoin’s high correlation with macroeconomic conditions, the tone of today’s minutes could be pivotal in determining whether BTC breaks upward or retests lower support levels.

## How the Market Might Evolve Next

Liquidity is expected to gradually return to normal after the holiday season. Following the release of the FOMC minutes, the market should be able to establish the primary trend direction for Bitcoin in early 2026. Until then, traders should closely monitor the minutes’ descriptions of the Fed’s future policy path and the officials’ consensus on inflation prospects.

In the short term, Bitcoin’s next move will depend on market interpretation of this document. Whether it breaks upward or tests lower levels, clues should emerge within the next few hours. Embracing volatility and managing risk will be the core principles for traders at this critical moment.