What is Clarity and Why It Is Not the Key to Bitcoin Breakthrough?

As Bitcoin trades around $90.77K, many investors are waiting for the US CLARITY bill to create a historic turning point for the value of cryptocurrencies. However, legendary analyst Peter Brandt has a different perspective—and it’s worth your careful consideration.

What is Clarity: The Legal Framework for the Future

First, let’s clarify what we’re talking about. Clarity is not a legal revolution—it’s a necessary structuring. This bill is designed to define clear boundaries between the roles of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) in overseeing cryptocurrency markets and digital assets. It is a targeted legal framework, not a set of price volatility.

Brandt and Realistic Views: Why Expectations Need to Be Tamed

With over five decades of experience in financial markets, Peter Brandt is not a commentator to be ignored. Recently, he made a humorous yet very clear remark: regulatory clarity is only part of the picture, not the whole picture.

Brandt’s view can be summarized as follows: Bitcoin’s price is shaped by complex global forces—widespread acceptance, macroeconomic conditions, Bitcoin’s inherent scarcity—not by a regulation in a single country, even if that country is the US.

Why a Legal Bill Doesn’t Automatically Trigger Price Gains

To understand Brandt’s argument, we need to consider three main factors:

First: The Geographical Limitation of US Regulation

Bitcoin operates on a global market. Its valuation target does not follow national borders. A legal decision in the US certainly has influence—but it’s only part of a global pattern. Markets in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere still operate under their own rules.

Second: Acceptance Versus Permission

This is a subtle but very important distinction. Clarity grants legal rights to organizations—a regulatory umbrella. However, the real long-term price driver is not permission but actual usage. Bitcoin needs widespread acceptance as a tool, a store of value, or a medium of exchange—not just a legal investment.

Third: The “Sell on Good News” Risk

This is a classic warning for investors. Major events are often anticipated and reflected in prices months or even years before they happen. When good news is confirmed, the market may sell off instead of holding. The passage of Clarity could be a typical case of this effect—it may ease negative sentiment rather than trigger a new wave of buying.

History as a Guide: Brandt’s Chart Analysis

To better understand Brandt’s current stance, we should revisit his recent analysis work. In October, he made an interesting historical comparison, matching the chart pattern of Bitcoin with the soybean market in the 1970s. Based on that technical analogy, he forecasted a potential correction around $60,000.

This is crucial for context. Brandt’s view on CLARITY is not made in a vacuum—it’s viewed through the lens of technical pressure, historical market cycles, and current macroeconomic challenges. It’s not a rejection of regulation; it’s a reminder that legal frameworks are just one piece of the puzzle.

A More Rational Investment Strategy

So, what should you do with this information? Here are three specific actions:

Differentiate Progress from Guarantee

Regulatory clarity is a positive development. But it’s not a price guarantee. They are related, but not the same. Passing a bill does not automatically mean Bitcoin will jump 50%.

Focus on Long-Term Fundamentals

Instead of political guessing, keep an eye on truly important metrics: network security, hash rate, wallet growth, and real-world adoption levels. These figures will determine Bitcoin’s future more than any headline event.

Build a Diversified Investment Case

Avoid basing your entire investment thesis on a single regulatory event. Instead, consider a range of potential triggers: organizational adoption, macroeconomic trends, technological developments, and global market dynamics. This approach protects your strategy from a sudden disappointment if a political event doesn’t unfold as expected.

Conclusion: From Overconfidence to Accurate Valuation

Peter Brandt’s analysis represents the maturity of the cryptocurrency market. In the past, Bitcoin’s price was driven by wild rumors and naive expectations. Today, experienced investors apply discipline, long-term thinking—that’s exactly what a well-formed market does.

The clear message: Sustainable growth in Bitcoin’s price arises from real-world acceptance and technological utility, not from regulatory checkmarks. CLARITY is a necessary step—a building block for the future. But it’s not a magic wand for today’s prices. Wise investors should welcome regulatory clarity but also temper their short-term expectations.