SOPR indicator hits the critical level of 1.5 again: Can Bitcoin see a rebound?

On-Chain Data Sends Positive Signals

Bitcoin’s on-chain indicators are once again sending a “message.” According to the latest data, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator has approached the historically sensitive level of 1.5. This number may seem ordinary, but in the field of on-chain analysis, it carries significant meaning.

What is SOPR? Simply put, this indicator measures whether BTC holders are in profit or loss when selling. When SOPR is above 1, it indicates that investors are, on average, in profit; conversely, below 1 suggests losses. And the 1.5 level? History shows that whenever the market reaches this zone, it often signifies that panic has peaked.

Will History Repeat Itself? The Mirror of 2024

This is not the first time SOPR has approached 1.5 during a bear market. At the end of last year (2024), we witnessed a similar scenario—SOPR hit around 1.5, followed by a strong rebound in Bitcoin. Market analysts point out that these “low zones” often coincide with the market capitulation phase, a critical period when weak participants exit and large funds start accumulating.

If historical patterns repeat, the current correction cycle may be nearing its end. Many traders are observing quietly, waiting for confirmation signals such as increased trading volume, support levels holding, or macroeconomic favorable factors.

Current Market Context

It is worth noting that Bitcoin is currently trading around $90.59K, in a correction zone. At this sensitive moment, the trend of SOPR is particularly worth watching—it may signal the start of the next upward trend.

Outlook: Indicator Effectiveness vs. Market Uncertainty

While SOPR performs well in predicting market bottoms, no single indicator can perfectly forecast market direction. The current position of the indicator indeed warrants investor vigilance—it could mean that the correction is about to end and an upward trend is near. However, markets are ever-changing, and final confirmation still depends on multiple factors such as trading volume and policy developments.

For Bitcoin investors, this is a time to observe on-chain dynamics and prepare for the next move.