Will gold and metals become the kings of 2026? Volatility analysis reveals a trend favoring commodities amid the cryptocurrency recession

Market observations indicate a growing divergence between traditional metals and the digital asset segment. Mike McGlone, a strategist from Bloomberg Intelligence, based on the analysis of market volatility patterns, suggests that we may be heading into a year favoring natural resources. This trend reflects profound changes in market valuation dynamics.

Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex vs Galaxy Crypto: Who Dominates in 2026?

The comparison of two indices – Bloomberg All Metals Total Return Subindex and Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index – reveals an interesting asymmetry in the behavior of these asset classes. Where the 120-day volatility of the S&P 500 remains elevated, metals exhibit a significantly more stable growth trajectory compared to previous years.

Historical data shows that before 2020, metals accumulated gains alongside rising volatility. Then, during 2021-2023, we observed a gradual stabilization of metal prices, while the cryptocurrency index experienced extreme fluctuations. These movements were usually synchronized with peaks of uncertainty in equity markets.

Entering 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, the pattern changes. Metals maintain relative calm, showing smaller fluctuations. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies again experience increased volatility, suggesting a return to the traditional scheme: when financial conditions tighten, commodities take on the role of a safe haven.

Bitcoin vs Gold: The mystery of the 20x ratio and valuation modeling perspectives

The second dimension of Bloomberg Intelligence’s analysis focuses on the dynamics of the Bitcoin–gold ratio concerning stock market volatility. The chart depicting this relationship places the current rate at 20x (as of December 29), with a BE model indicating a potential path toward 13x in the future.

The history of this ratio is instructive. During periods when stock market volatility was low (especially 2018-2020 and 2022-2023), the Bitcoin–gold indicator showed stabilization or rebounds. Conversely, every sharp increase in stock volatility was accompanied by downward pressure on this ratio. The interpretation is clear: stock market volatility acts as a barometer indicating the relative attractiveness of digital assets versus precious metals.

At the beginning of 2025, we observe a renewed decline in this ratio amid rising volatility readings. This suggests that investors may be shifting capital from Bitcoin and digital assets toward gold – the classic hedging method in times of uncertainty.

Cryptocurrency decline as a symptom of greater capital reallocation

The decline in the cryptocurrency sector should not surprise those monitoring these macroeconomic indicators. Bloomberg Intelligence indicates that historical patterns suggest recurring dynamics: when stock markets exhibit increased volatility, investors seek safe havens. Metals, especially gold, are the traditional choice in such situations.

The key to understanding future dynamics lies precisely in the volatility path. If the elevated readings relative to the S&P 500 persist, metals may indeed demonstrate relative dominance compared to the cryptocurrency markets. Bloomberg Economics’ model suggests that such a scenario is not only possible but statistically anchored in long-term relationships.

Implications for 2026: Commodities in focus?

The combination of these two analyses paints a picture where financial volatility is a driving variable in capital allocation. As market conditions tighten, metals attract the attention of portfolio managers, while stocks and more speculative instruments – including cryptocurrencies – lose appeal.

Mike McGlone’s forecast for 2026 is based on this observation: if historical patterns hold, the coming year could be one in which metals become the preferred asset class for investors seeking stability and inflation protection.