Bitcoin remains under psychological pressure: the Fear & Greed index stays at lows while cryptocurrency prices today challenge market logic

The most intriguing paradox in the crypto market today lies in an evident contradiction: while Bitcoin reaches historically high levels around $90.43K (down 0.26% in the last 24 hours), the Fear & Greed Index continues to signal widespread anxiety. At the end of December 2025, the indicator remained in the “Extreme Fear” (0-24) range for a full 14 consecutive days, creating a prolonged pessimism that even the dramatic FTX collapse in November 2022 had not generated.

When a crash isn’t the same as panic: the contrast with November 2022

The FTX crisis triggered an immediate but short-lived shock. During those hectic days, Bitcoin plummeted below $20,000, touching lows under $16,000 within days, and the fear index recorded consecutive closes in “Extreme Fear” for a shorter period. Liquidity evaporated quickly, and the centralized credit system froze.

Today, the situation is radically different in form but similar in feeling. Prices are moving toward all-time highs—Bitcoin trades with a contained daily volatility of 1.5%—yet sentiment remains firmly depressed. The anomaly suggests that investors fear not an imminent crash, but something more insidious: a gradual correction or a prolonged recession scenario.

What fuels this fear despite high prices?

The Fear & Greed Index, developed by Alternative.me, synthesizes market volatility, trading volume, Bitcoin dominance, and social media sentiment. Current data reveal constant pressure on multiple fronts.

The macroeconomic context remains severe. U.S. interest rates continue to act as a brake compared to prevailing standards after 2010. Meanwhile, regulatory pressure has not eased: U.S. authorities continue enforcement actions on centralized trading platforms and stablecoin issuers. Although some major proceedings have concluded, monitoring infrastructure continues to weigh on overall sentiment.

Derivatives tell a story of extreme caution. Funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual contracts have compressed around zero or registered slightly negative values in recent sessions, while open interest has decreased from local highs. This indicates reduced leverage and an almost complete absence of excessive long positions—markets are not recklessly betting on further appreciation.

Sector movements show a cautious rotation. NFT-related tokens have fallen about 7.4% in the last 24 hours. Conversely, segments like decentralized artificial intelligence and SocialFi have recorded modest single-digit gains, suggesting operators are selecting very carefully rather than showing widespread risk appetite.

Volume and the enigma of apparent wealth

Despite spot volumes remaining moderate compared to the euphoria seen at the start of 2024 when Bitcoin ETFs were launched, overall liquidity in spot markets remains available. The paradox is that Bitcoin trades at over five times the value recorded during the FTX collapse, yet the psychological indicator suggests anxiety not unlike that seen during acute crises.

This creates an interpretation: fear is not a response to a sudden shock, but a reflection of structural tension—regulatory uncertainties, high rates, and the perception that current highs may not be sustainable in the medium term.

The hidden opportunity in extreme fear

The Fear & Greed Index methodology suggests that periods of “Extreme Fear” can serve as accumulation points for contrarian investors. Widespread fear often signals undervalued prices relative to long-term fundamentals. Conversely, when the index hits “Extreme Greed,” it has historically preceded significant corrections.

Today, the crypto market is in a complex position: rich on long-term scales but traded as if participants are preparing for an imminent downturn. The persistence of this psychological dissonance, longer than isolated panic episodes of the past, suggests that the market is processing structural pressures rather than spot events.