Bitcoin at 90.4K: Why are traders still "clingy" even as the 90K threshold is about to break?

The Bitcoin market at the end of 2025 is unfolding an intriguing “decisive battle.” The BTC price currently hovers around $90.40K USD, but instead of a strong recovery, signals from capital flows and traders’ actions indicate a completely different story.

Major funds are gradually withdrawing from BTC

Since mid-December, US Spot ETF Bitcoin products have continuously experienced net outflows. This is not a random signal but a clear indication of changing attitudes from institutional investors.

Data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) further illustrates this picture: Open Interest has fallen below the $10 billion USD threshold for the first time since September 2024. This figure is an important indicator of the commitment level of hedge funds and institutional investors toward Bitcoin.

“Arbitrage” strategies are losing their appeal

To understand why organizations are pulling back, we need to look at the basis trade mechanism — a classic strategy in crypto derivatives. Investors buy BTC spot via ETF while shorting BTC on CME futures to profit from price discrepancies.

In early 2025, profits from this strategy could reach nearly 10%. However, currently, it’s only about 5% — a level that no longer sufficiently compensates for risks and transaction costs. Therefore, many large funds have started to cease participation.

The space traders’ group remains “steadfast” in short positions

Interestingly, although organizations are withdrawing, short-term traders (short sellers) show notable confidence. They have accumulated large short positions with leverage at strategic price levels.

According to data from CoinGlass, approximately $3 billion USD in short positions are bet at around $90,600 USD — precisely where BTC is trading. If Bitcoin breaks through this level, short traders will face immediate liquidity risk. Their next target is $88.7K USD, where a significant liquidity pool is also lurking.

The battle among options traders is equally spectacular

On the other side, long traders are not giving up. Data shows leveraged buy positions concentrated at $83.9K USD and $86.1K USD. These are potential “traps” that could trigger liquidity if the price suddenly drops.

Especially, the options traders’ group is also participating in this game. According to Arkham, the largest put options volume (predicting price decline) in the next 24 hours is concentrated at $85K USD, while call options (predicting price increase) are centered at $88K USD and $90K USD. This indicates the market is expecting volatility between these price levels.

Outlook for the coming days

The short-term outlook for Bitcoin is a narrow trading range with fluctuations, not a clear trend. The absence of strong catalysts from institutional capital flows makes a breakthrough unlikely.

Some cautious analysts forecast that BTC could return to $80K USD by early 2026 if no new positive factors emerge. However, before that, the market will have to go through a “decisive” phase in the $85K - $90K USD zone, where liquidity positions are heavily concentrated.

Nothing is guaranteed, but one thing is clear: the coming days will be a “decisive stage” for BTC traders.